J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

18.04.2017 14:18 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Obgleich die Bewertungen von US-Aktien aktuell nicht mehr besonders günstig aussehen,

waren diese in der Vergangenheit von geringem Nutzen, um Wendepunkte des Marktes

zu erkennen. Die Analyse von Konjunkturveränderungen hat sich für Anleger als weitaus

wichtiger erwiesen, um ihr Portfolio vor Verlustphasen am Aktienmarkt zu schützen. Das

amerikanische Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut Conference Board erstellt mit dem LEI

(Leading Economic Index) einen Sammelindex aus verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen

Frühindikatoren, um konjunkturelle Veränderungen zu prognostizieren. Während der

letzten 50 Jahre war der Index präzise bei der Vorhersage von Rezessionen: er war vor

jedem wirtschaftlichen Abschwung rückläufig. Wie die Grafik zeigt, konnte der Index

Anleger in der Vergangenheit vor einem Bärenmarkt warnen. Aktuell verbessern sich die

Daten dieses Index und bieten Anlegern daher keinen Grund zur Beunruhigung.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_18.04.2017.pdf

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