J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

28.11.2016 11:20 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Investoren rätseln noch immer darüber, was eine Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps für die

Märkte bedeutet. Klar ist, dass das Wachstum während Trumps Amtszeit nicht mehr von der

Geldpolitik, sondern von fiskalpolitischen Massnahmen bestimmt werden dürfte. Wie die folgende

Grafik zeigt, hat der bevorstehende Machtwechsel zu einer deutlichen Divergenz zwischen Aktien

und Anleihen geführt. Im Jahresverlauf hatten sowohl die Aktien- als auch die Anleihenmärkte

lange Zeit von der lockeren Geldpolitik profitiert. Ganz so grosszügig ist die Fiskalpolitik freilich

nicht. Die Aussicht auf höhere Infrastrukturausgaben und Steuersenkungen wird 2017 wahrscheinlich

das Wachstum ankurbeln. Das ist gut für US-Aktien, die in der vergangenen Woche neue Rekordstände

erreichten. Eine fiskalische Expansion könnte allerdings einen Preisauftrieb und eine

entsprechend restriktive Geldpolitik zur Folge haben – schlechte Nachrichten für die US-Anleihenmärkte,

die voraussichtlich den schlechtesten Monat seit der Finanzkrise verzeichnen werden

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_28.11.2016.pdf

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