J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

02.08.2016 11:15 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Markterwartungen bezüglich der Frage, wie viele Zinsschritte in diesem Jahr

von der US-Notenbank Fed zu erwarten sind, haben seit Jahresbeginn heftig

geschwankt. Unmittelbar nach der Fed-Sitzung signalisierten die Futures eine

55%ige Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass es in diesem Jahr keine weitere Zinserhöhung

geben wird, die 37%ige Wahrscheinlichkeit einer einzelnen Zinserhöhung und nur

eine 8%ige Wahrscheinlichkeit von zwei Zinsschritten. Die Stellungnahme der

Notenbank hatte kaum noch Einfluss auf die Markterwartungen, da sich die

Bewertungen bereits nach den robusten Beschäftigungszahlen (ohne

Landwirtschaft) im Juni stark verschoben hatten. Die Arbeitsmarktdaten hatten

bestätigt, dass – um die Fed zu zitieren – die „kurzfristigen Risiken für den

Konjunkturausblick gesunken sind“. Wir glauben, dass sich die Fed bis Jahresende

zu einer Zinserhöhung durchringen wird.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_02.08.2016.pdf

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