J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

30.11.2015 09:55 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Thema der Woche

The Weekly Brief 30. November 2015

Zu Beginn des Jahres gingen die Exporte weltweit deutlich zurück und der World Trade

Monitor, der monatlich den Welthandel misst, zeigte in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2015

überwiegend stagnierende oder rückläufige Volumina. Dieses Wachstumsdefizit war

hauptsächlich auf die Abkühlung in den Schwellenländern, vor allem in China, zurückzuführen

sowie auf den Einbruch an den globalen Rohstoffmärkten. Die jüngsten Daten des Netherlands

Bureau for Policy Analysis (CPB) spiegeln nun allerdings einen Anstieg der Handelsvolumina

um 1,0% in den vergangenen sechs Monaten wider. Und es gibt Anzeichen dafür, dass sich

dieser positive Trend fortsetzen könnte: Die Nachfrage in China stabilisiert sich, und die USA

sowie Europa verzeichnen ein anhaltend konstantes Konsumwachstum. Die Ära der

„Hyperglobalisierung“, in der das Welthandelsvolumen Jahr für Jahr deutlich stärker stieg als das weltweite BIP, wird sich vielleicht nicht wiederholen, doch wenn das globale Wachstum im

nächsten Jahr entsprechend den Prognosen anziehen kann, dann sollte auch der weltweite

Handel zunehmen.

J.P. Morgan_The Weekly Brief_30.11.2015.pdf

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