J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

21.09.2015 10:04 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Soeben noch konzentrierte sich alles auf die Zinsentscheidung der Fed, doch in dieser Woche warten wir gespannt auf einige wichtige Wirtschaftsdaten aus der Eurozone. Der Verbrauchervertrauensindex

wird am Dienstag bekannt gegeben, die PMI-Werte werden am Mittwoch publiziert.

Das Verbrauchervertrauen nähert sich seinem Vorkrisenhöchststand und könnte unseren

Prognosen zufolge mittelfristig sogar noch weiter steigen. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt seit zwei Jahren,

doch gibt es jetzt sogar Anzeichen für einen noch rascheren Rückgang. Aus der unteren Grafik wird

die enge Beziehung zwischen Arbeitslosenzahlen und Verbrauchervertrauen ersichtlich. Mit

steigenden Vertrauenswerten geben die Verbraucher mehr aus. Das kurbelt die Konjunktur an und

verringert die Arbeitslosigkeit. Eine sinkende Arbeitslosigkeit steigert wiederum das

Verbrauchervertrauen und bringt so einen positiven Kreislauf in Gang. Diese positive Korrelation hat

angesichts der nach wie vor hohen Arbeitslosigkeit samt zugehörigem Verbesserungspotenzial noch

viel Spielraum nach oben.

J.P. Morgan_The Weekly Brief 21.09.2915.pdf

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