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Am 11. August hat die chinesische Zentralbank die Märkte überrascht und den Renminbi um 1.8% gegenüber dem USD abgewertet und ein neues Regime zur Festsetzung des Referenzkurses angekündigt. Primär ist das neue Regime ein weiterer Schritt auf dem langen Weg der Liberalisierung der Finanzmärkte. Auch wenn der Wechselkurs verstärkt vom Markt bestimmt werden soll, heisst das nicht, dass die Zentralbank in Zukunft ihren Einfluss am Devisenmarkt völlig aufgibt. Am 13. August hat die Zentralbank an einer Pressekonferenz angekündigt, dass der Anpassungsprozess grösstenteils beendet sei und der Renminbi ein neues fundamental gerechtfertigtes Gleichgewicht gefunden habe. Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Renminbi sich weiter etwas abschwächen wird, wobei die Währungshüter bei stärkeren Bewegungen intervenieren werden. Aus heutiger Sicht dürfte sich der USD/CNY bis Jahresende in Richtung 6.50 bewegen. Sollte die Abwertung der chinesischen Währung bereits vorüber sein oder sich nur noch in bescheidenem Ausmasse fortsetzen, dürften sich die Auswirkungen auf die globalen Finanzmärkte und die Weltkonjunktur in engen Grenzen halten. Eine stärkere Abschwächung des Renminbi würde allerdings durchaus ihre Spuren hinterlassen.
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Freundliche Grüsse
Anastassios Frangulidis
Chefökonom und Chefstratege der Zürcher Kantonalbank
Head Multi Asset Research, SOM
Zürcher Kantonalbank
Telefon 044 292 21 64, Fax 044 448 90 98
Briefadresse: Postfach, 8010 Zürich / www.zkb.ch
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