J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

18.08.2014 11:47 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Im Zuge des August-Inflationsberichts der Bank von England (BoE), zeigt der Wochenchart die Beziehung zwischen der Arbeitslosenquote und dem Lohnwachstum des privaten Sektors auf. In der Vergangenheit hat sich das Lohnwachstum spiegelbildlich zur Veränderung der Arbeitslosenquote entwickelt. Seit der Finanzkrise ist diese Beziehung jedoch zerbrochen und zuletzt in entgegengesetzte Richtungen verlaufen. So ist die Arbeitslosenquote mit 6,4 Prozent auf ihr fünf-Jahres-Tief zurückgegangen, während das Lohnwachstum über diesen Zeitraum eine Kontraktion vollzog. Diese Divergenz ist für die BoE ein echtes Rätsel, weil es die tatsächliche Qualität der Verbesserung am Arbeitsmarkt in Frage stellt und daraus Unsicherheit über den Zeitpunkt einer ersten Zinserhöhung resultiert. Die Kernfrage für die BoE wird also sein, was höhere Preise für die wirtschaftliche Erholung bedeuten, wenn die Steigerung der Löhne real negativ ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es trotz der verbesserten wirtschaftlichen Lage und sinkender Arbeitslosigkeit wahrscheinlich, dass die BoE ihr Pulver auf absehbare Zeit trocken halten wird.

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