J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

23.09.2024 14:36 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Leitzinssenkung der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) um 50 Basispunkte (Bp) in der vergangenen Woche war Anlass für zahlreiche Diskussionen. Für Anleihen-Anlegerinnen und Anleger ist es jedoch wichtiger, wie der Zinssenkungszyklus endet, als wie er beginnt. Das jüngste Dot-Plot-Diagramm zeigt, dass die Fed nun mit einem relativ schnellen Tempo der Zinssenkungen rechnet. Der Median der Prognosen der Entscheidungsträger deutet auf weitere Zinssenkungen von 150 Basispunkten bis Ende nächsten Jahres hin, bevor sich die Zinsen ab 2026 bei 2,9 % einpendeln. Der Vorsitzende Powell äusserte sich zwar positiv zur aktuellen Wirtschaftslage, machte aber auch deutlich, dass die Fed bereit ist, mehr zu tun, wenn die Daten dies erfordern. Für Multi-Asset-Investorinnen und -Investoren bedeutet dies, dass Anleihen trotz der Tatsache, dass die Märkte ein schnelleres Tempo der Zinssenkungen einpreisen als die Fed, immer noch zur Diversifizierung der Portfolios beitragen können, falls das Wachstum stärker als erwartet nachlässt.

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