J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

29.07.2024 16:33 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Nach einer anhaltenden Normalisierungsphase zwischen 2022 und 2023 steigen die Schifffahrtskosten wieder an. Eine Kombination aus schlechtem Wetter in Asien, erhöhter Nachfrage, da die Unternehmen vor der Hauptschifffahrtssaison Lagerbestände aufbauen, und Auslassungsproblemen sowohl im Roten Meer als auch im Panamakanal tragen alle zum Kostenanstieg bei. Bisher haben sich die Lieferzeiten der Zulieferer noch gut gehalten. Die Daten des Einkaufsmanagerindex (PMI) der vergangenen Woche gaben wenig Grund zur Sorge, auch wenn wir dies in den kommenden Monaten genau beobachten werden. Die Desinflation der Güterpreise war der entscheidende Faktor für den Rückgang der Inflation in den letzten Quartalen. Angesichts des Risikos, dass sich dieser Trend nun umkehren könnte, muss der Preisdruck im Dienstleistungssektor deutlich nachlassen, wenn sich die Kerninflation weiter in Richtung 2 %-Ziel bewegen soll.

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