J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

19.02.2024 12:16 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Letzte Woche dämpften die Zahlen zur US-Inflation im Januar die Hoffnungen auf eine baldige Zinswende. Die Gesamtinflation fiel auf 3,1 % zum Vorjahr, während die Kerninflation mit 3,9 % konstant blieb. Allerdings lagen beide Werte über den Konsenserwartungen. Dies lässt sich zum Teil auf die jährliche Preisanpassung im Januar zurückführen, obwohl die monatliche Teuerung in einigen Bereichen der Kerndienstleistungen auf einen anhaltenden Preisdruck im Inland hindeutet. Auch wenn Anleger nicht zu viel in einen einzelnen Datenpunkt hineininterpretieren sollten, machen diese Zahlen erneut deutlich, dass die Normalisierung der Inflationsraten langsamer und ungleichmässiger verlaufen könnte, als viele Anfang 2024 angenommen haben. Die US-Notenbank hat darauf hingewiesen, dass sie mehr Vertrauen in die Inflationsentwicklung braucht, bevor sie Zinssenkungen in Erwägung zieht. Dieses Vertrauen könnte sich bis zum Sommer noch einstellen, aber die Daten der letzten Woche liessen kaum darauf schliessen, dass die Zinsen in Kürze sinken werden.

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