J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

13.11.2023 11:32 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die US-Berichtssaison ist nahezu abgeschlossen, da 90% des S&P 500 Index nach Marktkapitalisierung ihre Ergebnisse vorgelegt haben. Das zentrale Thema dieses Quartals waren die robusten Margen. Die Margen standen seit ihrem Höchstwert im Jahr 2021 unter Druck, aber sinkende Inputkosten in Verbindung mit kontinuierlichen Verbraucherausgaben haben den Abwärtstrend im dritten Quartal verzögert. Wir gehen davon aus, dass diese Resilienz 2024 nachlassen wird, wenn sich die Wirtschaft verlangsamt, die Nachfrage sinkt und die Preismacht bröckelt. Der Konsens rechnet für 2024 derzeit mit einem Gewinnwachstum von 11 % im S&P 500, was die Erwartung beinhaltet, dass die Margen nicht nur auf ihrem jetzigen Niveau bleiben, sondern sogar wieder steigen. Daher sehen wir ein Abwärtsrisiko für die künftigen Gewinnprognosen. Da die US-Indexbewertungen nur begrenzten Spielraum haben, um Gewinnherabstufungen aufzufangen, könnte es zu einer weiteren Marktvolatilität kommen.

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