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Vergangene Woche beliess die Bank of Japan (BoJ) ihren Leitzins unverändert bei -0,1 %, lockerte jedoch die Zinskurvenkontrolle. Der Kontrollmechanismus betrifft die längerfristigen Zinsen, und letzte Woche hat die BoJ ihren oberen Referenzwert für die Renditen zehnjähriger japanischer Staatsanleihen von 0,5 % auf 1 % angehoben. Dieser Schritt wurde durch den anhaltenden Preis- und Lohndruck beschleunigt. Die Kerninflation (ohne frische Lebensmittel und Energie) lag im September bei 4,2 % zum Vorjahr und damit deutlich über dem 2-Prozent-Ziel der BoJ. Wenn die japanischen Renditen steigen, dürfte der Yen aufwerten. Die könnte exportorientierte japanische Unternehmen beeinträchtigen, die einen grossen Teil ihrer Gewinne im Ausland erzielen und diese Fremdwährungsgewinne in Yen umtauschen müssen. Während Governance-Reformen und ein besserer makroökonomischer Ausblick also positiv für japanische Aktien sind, ist ein geordneter Ausstieg aus der Zinskurvenkontrolle wahrscheinlich notwendig, um den japanischen Aktienmarkt zu entlasten.
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