J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

18.09.2023 12:12 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Gesamtlöhne in Grossbritannien stiegen im Juli um 8,5 % zum Vorjahr und haben sich damit weiter beschleunigt. Obwohl dieser Wert zum Teil den Effekt von Einmalzahlungen an die Beschäftigten im öffentlichen Sektor widerspiegelt, bleibt das reguläre Lohnwachstum (ohne derartige Zulagen) mit 7,8 % zum Vorjahr ebenfalls hartnäckig hoch. Diese Lohnstabilität steht im Gegensatz zu anderen Konjunkturindikatoren – die Unternehmensumfragen gaben im August nach und das BIP sank im Juli um 0,5 % zum Vormonat – und hängt unter anderem mit dem schwachen Arbeitskräfteangebot zusammen. So liegt die Zahl der Menschen, die wegen längerer Krankheit nicht arbeiten, immer noch 600.000 über dem Niveau vor der Pandemie. Für die Bank of England (BoE) ist die Divergenz zwischen dem Arbeitsmarkt und der übrigen Wirtschaft problematisch. Während andere Zentralbanken der Industrieländer nun möglicherweise eine Pause einlegen können, wird die BoE die Zinsen wahrscheinlich weiter anheben müssen, trotz der schwächeren Aktivität.

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