J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

03.07.2023 16:42 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Märkte sind in den letzten Monaten optimistischer geworden. Da die unmittelbaren Wachstumsrisiken aufgrund der Schuldengrenze und der regionalen Bankenkrise in den Hintergrund getreten sind, betrachten die Investoren eine Rezession zunehmend als Thema für 2024. Einige erwarten sogar, dass die USA ganz davon verschont bleiben. Ein Hauptgrund für diese Einschätzung ist der robuste Arbeitsmarkt, der sich in der Vergangenheit jedoch als Spätindikator erwiesen hat. Di unten stehende Grafik aus unserem halbjährlichen Investment-Ausblick zeigt: Wenn die Unternehmensgewinne sinken, kommt es oft zu Arbeitsplatzverlusten. Die Unternehmensgewinne sind jetzt rückläufig, wobei sich die volle Wirkung der geldpolitischen Straffung wahrscheinlich noch nicht in der Wirtschaft niedergeschlagen hat. Auch wenn das Horten von Arbeitskräften diesen Zusammenhang etwas abschwächen könnte, sehen wir das Risiko, dass der Markt derzeit ein Szenario einpreist, das vor allem eines ist: „Zu schön um wahr zu sein“ (der Titel unseres Investment-Ausblicks).

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