J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

27.03.2023 10:43 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die jüngsten Ereignisse haben die Markterwartungen an die künftige Zinsentwicklung erheblich verändert. Vor den aktuellen Sorgen um den Finanzsektor rechnete der Markt mit einem US-Leitzins von maximal 5,5 %, hält den Höchststand nun aber bereits für erreicht und erwartet eine Zinssenkung der US-Notenbank (Fed) in diesem Sommer. Die Banken hatten ihre Kreditvergabestandards schon verschärft, und die jüngsten Turbulenzen könnten zu einer weiteren Straffung der Kreditbedingungen führen. Dies könnte die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der bisherigen restriktiven Geldpolitik verstärken. Wir sind daher der Meinung, dass zusätzliche signifikante Zinserhöhungen wahrscheinlich nicht mehr erforderlich sind. Staatsanleihen haben aufgrund zunehmender Befürchtungen über die Wirtschaftsaussichten bereits angezogen, könnten aber noch weitere Aufwärtsbewegungen verzeichnen, wenn die Zinsen stärker gesenkt werden sollten als derzeit eingepreist.

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