J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

25.11.2013 11:50 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Allem Anschein nach ist die wirtschaftliche Erholung in Europa in vollem Gange. In einer solchen Zeit sollte jedoch überlegt werden, mit welchem Gegenwind zu rechnen sein könnte. Obwohl sich die Europäische Zentralbank dafür ausspricht, die Zinsen für einen längeren Zeitraum niedrig zu lassen, werden bei steigendem Wachstum auch diese wieder anziehen. Viele Verbraucher haben den Vorteil der niedrigen Zinsen genutzt, um ihre Hypotheken zu refinanzieren, aber wie aus der Tabelle hervorgeht, sind die Hypotheken in vielen europäischen Ländern mehrheitlich mit variabler Verzinsung. Bei steigenden Zinsen würden sich somit die Ratenzahlungen erhöhen und damit einen grösseren Teil des zur Verfügung stehenden Einkommens der Verbraucher beanspruchen. Obwohl dies nicht in jedem europäischen Land der Fall sein wird, sollte nicht übersehen werden, dass höhere Zinszahlungen sich negativ auf die Konsumausgaben der Verbraucher auswirken können und somit auch Einfluss auf das Wirtschaftswachstum nehmen können.

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