J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

30.03.2020 11:40 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die US-Wirtschaft befindet sich jetzt am Beginn einer Rezession. Die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe stieg in der Woche bis zum 21. März auf 3,283 Millionen. Die Geschwindigkeit und Grössenordnung dieses Anstiegs verdeutlichen, dass die US-Unternehmen angesichts der plötzlichen Schliessungen aufgrund des Coronavirus ihre Beschäftigten entlassen mussten. Die politischen Entscheidungsträger haben sich bemüht, das Ausmass dieser Rezession zu begrenzen: Die US-Notenbank hat ihren Leitzins auf Null gesenkt und die quantitative Lockerung in aggressivem Tempo wieder aufgenommen; der US-Kongress einigte sich auf ein Konjunkturpaket von 2,2 Bio. USD, um Unternehmen und Verbraucher zu unterstützen. Trotz dieser Hilfsmassnahmen könnte eine neutrale Risikoallokation sinnvoll sein, zumindest so lange, bis die Anträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe und die Infektionsrate ihren Höhepunkt erreicht haben.

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