J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

12.06.2018 09:40 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Im Mai sank die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA das zweite Mal in Folge und lag mit 3,8% auf

dem niedrigsten Stand seit 1969. Ausserdem konnten wir in den letzten Monaten ein stetiges

Lohnwachstum in den USA beobachten. Der durchschnittliche Stundenlohn ist im

Vorjahresvergleich um 2,8% gestiegen. Dies stellt einen Trend dar, der aufgrund der

zunehmenden Schwierigkeit, qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte zu finden, anhalten könnte. Die

Umfrage des Verbandes unabhängiger Unternehmen (NFIB, National Federation of

Independent Business) zeigt einen nahezu rekordverdächtigen Anteil von Unternehmen, die

die Qualität der verfügbaren Arbeitskräfte als ihr grösstes Problem identifizieren. Die Zahl der

offenen Stellen übersteigt nun die Zahl der Arbeitslosen, was die Chancen einer Lohnerhöhung

für qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte erhöht. Angesichts der niedrigen Arbeitslosenquote und dem

zunehmenden Inflationsdruck, erwarten wir, dass die US-Notenbank den Leitzins diese Woche

um 25 Basispunkte erhöht und bis zum Jahresende zwei weitere Male erhöhen wird.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_11.06.2018.pdf

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