J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

04.06.2018 09:48 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der vom Institut The Conference Board erhobene Verbrauchervertrauen-Index deutet darauf

hin, dass die US-Verbraucher weithin optimistisch sind. Der im Mai veröffentlichte Index zeigte

mit 128,00 Punkten, im Vergleich zu 125,6 Punkten im April eine Erholung des

Verbrauchervertrauens. Aus der aktuellen Grafik ergeben sich zwei Schlussfolgerungen.

Obwohl hohe Niveaus des US-Konsumentenvertrauens darauf hindeuten, dass wir uns in

einem späteren Stadium dieses Konjunkturzyklus befinden, ist die kurzfristige

Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession gering, so lange wir kein deutliches Absinken des

Vertrauens feststellen. In der Vergangenheit waren die Bärenmärkte tendenziell mit einem

starken Rückgang des Verbrauchervertrauens verbunden. Sofern das Verbrauchervertrauen

auf diesem hohen Niveau bleibt, sollte dies den US-Aktienmarkt weiter stützen

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_04.06.2018.pdf

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