First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
14.01.2020 16:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Gift That Keeps Giving The US economy is not in an economic boom, but growth has been consistently faster than during the Plow Horse phase from mid-2009 through the end of 2016. Real GDP has grown at a 2.6% annual rate since the start of 2017 versus 2.2% beforehand. But most analysts expect a noticeable slowdown in 2020; not a recession, but slimmer 1.8% real GDP growth (Q4/Q4). This is an...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.01.2020 10:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Expansion Continues What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, we forecasted the S&P would hit 3100 this year. At the time, this was a very aggressive call. Then we doubled down at mid-year, lifting our forecast to 3250. At the end of last week we were only 0.3% away. Two weeks ago we made our case for 3650 by the end of 2020. That may...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.01.2020 10:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.” Some...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
07.01.2020 13:24 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Blame the Overweight Jockey The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP growth accelerated, to an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, while the unemployment rate now stands at the lowest level in 50 years (and is...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
17.12.2019 11:16 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: S&P 3650, Dow 32500 A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the stock market was screaming BUY. At mid-year, seeing the economic and trade-policy stars aligning for further growth, and with our model for equites (more on...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.12.2019 15:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Good News is Good News A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a “bear market,” and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again. The Pouting Pundits still talk about ISM surveys being weak, and fret that a trade war is brewing. But, the S&P 500 is up 25% this year, and Friday’s report on...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
03.12.2019 16:54 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Worry About the US Consumer During the next couple of days you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on Thanksgiving Day itself. Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores were up 4.2% from a year ago. So much for the theory that brick and...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
19.11.2019 10:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Long Live the Bull Market Last December, almost 12 months ago, we set our year-end 2019 target for the S&P 500 at 3,100. Many thought we were way too bullish, but our model for the stock market suggested 3,100 was well within reach. We believed the bull market had plenty of room to run. Now, with six weeks to go until year-end, the stock market has already closed above our initial target. As of...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
12.11.2019 15:27 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Income Inequality, Taxation, and Redistribution One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer’s 1990 book, “Unlimited Wealth.” It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution. Imagine 10 people live on an island. Each day they wake up, catch two fish, eat them, and go back to bed. Its subsistence living at the most...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
29.10.2019 17:38 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Another Fed Rate Cut on the Way At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest it’s been since mid-2018. We hate to agree with the conventional wisdom, but in this case, we think it’s right. It’s very unlikely the Fed...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
22.10.2019 18:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: More Tepid GDP Growth in Q3 The government doesn’t release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it’ll come in at right around a 1.8% annual rate, maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower. Given that the economy grew at a tepid 2.0% annual rate in Q2, we’re sure you’ll hear...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
15.10.2019 16:49 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Trade Clouds Parting Trade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it’s been hard to keep track! But over the past few months we think a trend toward settlement of these disputes has emerged. Congress must still act on the new version...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
14.10.2019 12:57 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Labor Market Continues to Roar In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday’s employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have seen in their lifetimes. Even better, the drop in joblessness was broad-based. The Hispanic unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, while...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
03.10.2019 16:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Repo Turmoil In Ronald Reagan’s famous A Time For Choosing speech in 1964, he said “…the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan.” We were reminded of this recently after pundits freaked out when the New York Federal Reserve injected reserves into the banking system to keep some short-term rates from rising. A few things to keep in mind: 1) The jump in the overnight repo and federal...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
24.09.2019 17:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Fear the Spending, Not the Debt Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They’re certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this fiscal year (October 2018 through August 2019), the U.S. budget deficit was over $1 trillion ($1.067...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
17.09.2019 14:02 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We’re All Keynesians Now “We are all Keynesians now,” is a phrase that caught on in the late 1960s and early 1970s, variously attributed to Milton Friedman and President Richard Nixon. Uncle Milty was commenting on the general political/economic environment, not saying he was a Keynesian. Richard Nixon, on the other hand, actually said “I am now a Keynesian.” We bring this up because it’s...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.09.2019 17:22 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Rorschach Economics We’ve all heard of the Rorschach test - you know, the one where you look at an ink blot and say what you see. The theory is that it’s a tunnel into someone’s subconscious thoughts or desires. If you’re obsessed with hockey you might look at an ink splotch and see hockey sticks, or pucks, a Stanley Cup, or even Bobby Orr; if someone is obsessed with outer space, she could look at...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
04.09.2019 13:38 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Labor Days Labor Day is probably the best time to take stock of the American worker and, for them, it’s rarely been better. The unemployment rate is near the lowest level since the 1960s, job growth remains robust, and wage growth is in a general accelerating trend. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in April and May and 3.7% in June and July, and, we’re guessing, August, as well. The last time...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
06.08.2019 13:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Flailing Fed The Fed is flailing. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was “data dependent.” But the decision last week to reduce short-term rates by 25 basis points tore that narrative to shreds. At the prior Federal Reserve meeting in mid-June, a slender majority of Fed policymakers projected no rate cuts...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
23.07.2019 16:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Temporary Tepid Growth for Q2 This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we’re projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our projection holds true, we’re sure pessimistic analysts and investors will latch onto the slowdown from the 3.1% growth rate for the...
