First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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05.04.2022 18:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase “we are all Keynesians now.” John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of economic activity. Friedman and Nixon...
30.03.2022 10:14 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation is a political lightning rod. As a result, there is a good deal of misconception around it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 7.9% from a year ago and will likely peak in the 8.5 - 9.0% range sometime in the next couple of months, the highest since 1981. Politicians blame war, or COVID, but the simple explanation is just too much money creation. Others think inflation will be temporary...
23.03.2022 10:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Normally when we write about public policy – monetary policy, taxes, spending, trade, and regulations – we mainly focus on what we think policymakers will do and the likely effects on the economy or the financial markets. For example, we now think the Fed is on a path to raise rates gradually and persistently throughout 2022, with some possibility of a rate hike of a half a percentage point along the...
15.03.2022 18:36 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With every passing month, politicians and economists try to blame inflation on anything but excess money growth. As inflation gets worse, just like the 1970s, the list of excuses for inflation grows longer. At the start of the year, politicians on the left were blaming higher inflation on greedy companies; now they’re blaming Putin. Meanwhile, politicians on the right started out blaming higher...
09.03.2022 16:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led western nations to impose the most draconian economic sanctions in the modern era. The Russian stock and bond markets have collapsed, along with Russia’s currency, the ruble. Many investors fear that China, which has always wanted control of Taiwan, will use the mayhem of the moment to take it. Obviously, this would create even more uncertainty and mayhem, but China...
01.03.2022 18:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Sticking to Our Targets, For Now Late last year we unveiled our stock market forecast for 2022, projecting the S&P 500 would rise to 5,250 and the Dow Jones Industrials average would climb to 40,000. Since then, however, equities have dropped, with (now realized) fears about Russia invading Ukraine and the recognition that inflation is a more persistent problem than the Federal Reserve had previously...
15.02.2022 16:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The financial markets have been on tenterhooks lately for two main reasons: Russia and rate hikes. By the time you read this, Russian tanks may already be rolling across the Ukrainian border. If not, we think an invasion of eastern Ukraine will probably start soon after the Olympics, to avoid embarrassing China, which is a Russian ally (for now). Not invading at all after a big build-up of...
10.02.2022 11:06 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Nothing is normal about the current business cycle; it really is unique. It started with a massive COVID-related lockdown, which caused the deepest and fastest recession on record. Then we had a recovery based on re-opening plus an unprecedented peacetime expansion in government spending. But rarely have we seen an economic report as misinterpreted as Friday’s jobs report. The key headline that...
02.02.2022 17:08 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Federal Reserve’s policy statement from last week plus Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference made it abundantly clear it is ready to start raising short-term interest rates in March. As of early this morning, the futures market for federal funds was pricing in five rate hikes (of 25 basis points each) in 2022. We think that many rate hikes are warranted; we’d even support more. The Fed...
25.01.2022 17:08 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When fourth quarter GDP data is released later this week, it will show that 2021 finished on a high note. Unfortunately, the high note included not only strong economic growth but also rapid inflation. This shouldn’t be a surprise; it’s what you get when you mix a huge surge in government spending with very loose monetary policy. At present, we estimate that real GDP grew at a 5.7% annual rate in...
18.01.2022 19:11 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming “greedy” businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are greedy, in the sense that they’re run by...
17.01.2022 18:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday’s job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small-business start-ups and entrepreneurship. Nonfarm payrolls rose 199,000 in December versus a consensus expected 450,000. Payroll growth was revised up a combined 141,000 in October and November,...
17.01.2022 18:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Welcome to 2022! We can’t imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, the winds of change are blowing hard. The economy has been buffeted by short-term factors since 2020; this year, long-term fundamentals should re-assert themselves as the most important drivers of economic and financial performance. First, the obvious: COVID and COVID-related...
17.01.2022 17:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.” Some people think Mary and Joseph were...
17.01.2022 17:57 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: From 30,000 feet, the COVID lockdown and re-opening played out pretty much like we thought. GDP collapsed in the first half of 2020, then exploded in the third quarter, followed by strong, but erratic, quarterly growth ever since. The fourth quarter data, when it’s released in January, will show 2021 had the fastest GDP growth, and highest inflation, since the 1980s. As a reminder, this is not a...
17.01.2022 17:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We were bullish in 2021 and bullishness obviously paid off. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up more than 25% so far this year. Meanwhile, a 10-year Treasury Note purchased at the end of 2020 has generated a negative total return, as interest earnings have been more than offset by capital losses. The reason we were bullish a year ago even amid widespread fears about COVID-19, is because we...
17.01.2022 17:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: At the close on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index was down 6.1% and the S&P 500 was down 3.5%, from their recent all-time record highs. The 10-year Treasury yield, which was 1.67% as recently as the week of Thanksgiving, was yielding 1.35% at the close on Friday. Oil prices have fallen about 22% from their highs and Bitcoin was down about 28% over this past weekend. Some investors are worried about...
30.11.2021 12:46 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: On Friday, news of a COVID-19 variant identified in South Africa, and the announcement of new travel restrictions, sent markets reeling. This is obviously not the only variant, and it won’t be the last, either. In our opinion, it’s not the new variant that is the problem, but the government’s potential reaction to it. Oil prices fell 13% on Friday, pricing in a potential new round of lockdowns. ...
16.11.2021 11:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation Returns Inflation is back and worse than it’s been in decades. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in October and are up 6.2% in the last twelve months. Two more months of moderate increases, and the CPI will be 6.5% in 2021, the highest inflation since 1982. As a result, after surging in the earliest stages of the pandemic, “real” (inflation-adjusted) average hourly wages have been trending...
09.11.2021 18:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In spite of what listening to the mainstream media might make you think, the voting public doesn’t change much from year to year or election to election. As a result, when leaders try to take policy too far in one direction, without enough public support, they often get punished at the polls. That’s our takeaway from the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial and down-ballot state legislative elections...