First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
Web: www.ftglobalportfolios.com/
Telefono: +44 (0)203 195 7121
A prima vista
39
Fondi
122
Classi
543
Documenti
0
Comunicazioni legali
26.05.2021 15:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting our wish. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2021 employment data, and payrolls increased a staggering 916,000 for the month, easily beating...
26.05.2021 15:02 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: You’ve got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while making it look like they didn’t have many tools at their disposal. The market keeps expecting the Fed to bow to pressures to lift rates, and the Fed knows that it can’t keep interest rates...
22.03.2021 14:36 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as “too much money chasing too few goods and services” – but that doesn’t mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today’s case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of the money supply is up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest year-to-year growth in the...
22.03.2021 14:35 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 gave the Fed a “dual mandate” – to promote maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. Over the years, the meaning of these two mandates has changed. Initially, in 1978, it was to get the economy to 3% unemployment and 3% inflation, or less. Since then, the unemployment rate has never been as low as 3%. So, this morphed into a target of...
22.03.2021 14:34 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Those of us who are concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates are focusing on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply. This measure has soared since COVID-19 hit the US, up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest growth on record. It is the key difference between the current situation and the situation in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of...
22.03.2021 14:33 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we’ll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that’ll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%. Meanwhile, 2021 got off to a roaring start. Retail sales soared 5.3% in January and are now up 7.4% from a year ago (pre-COVID). All major categories of sales rose in January,...
22.03.2021 14:33 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an “inflation-complacency” that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation. When the Fed boosted the Monetary Base by more than $3 trillion dollars during Quantitative...
22.03.2021 14:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Yes, 2021 is starting off as crazy as 2020. They don’t agree on the Green New Deal, or Socialism, but Ted Cruz and AOC both agree that limiting investor access to markets is a mistake. In case you missed it, last week, Robinhood, a new online trading platform that marketed itself as democratizing investment, stopped investors from buying certain stocks. They did this during a “short squeeze” that...
22.03.2021 14:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger. Before the bipartisan “stimulus” compromise passed in December, congressional budget scorekeepers estimated the fiscal year 2021 budget deficit at $1.8 trillion. Now, with that...
22.03.2021 14:31 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either. It’s true that renewed shutdowns starting last November finally hit retail sales and employment, especially at restaurants and bars. But much of the economy, like manufacturing output and housing, kept growing in the fourth quarter. As a...
15.01.2021 17:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many dramatic policies, which require 60 votes, but tax policy is likely to change in some significant ways. Congress can use special budget procedures to pass tax hikes without...
15.01.2021 17:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Keeping Good State Policies When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in Nevada, 15.8% in Arizona, and 15.3% in Florida. Meanwhile, state populations declined in West Virginia, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, and...
15.01.2021 17:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation, Debt, MMT, and Bitcoin We can’t possibly exhaust our thoughts on all these topics in one Monday Morning Outlook, but we thought we’d give it the old college try. This year, 2020, has been exceptionally interesting for investors. Not only have stocks soared to new highs and mortgage rates fallen to new lows, but Bitcoin, after languishing since 2017, has surged. Since bottoming near...
15.01.2021 17:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist? The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.” ...
15.01.2021 17:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Stimulus, Bailouts, and the Fed Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a “COVID-shutdown rescue package” seems like a no brainer, it’s been caught up in politics for months. Democrats have been holding out for a huge, potentially $3 trillion dollar bill, while Republicans are looking at debt in the years ahead and suggesting that...
07.12.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: 2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we’ve ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – 33.1% annualized real growth in Q3, and likely 5%+ growth in Q4...
07.12.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Mnuchin, Powell and the Georgia Elections Who’s in charge of fiscal policy? That’s the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury’s decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020. Back in March, right after the US had hunkered down due to COVID-19, Congress passed the...
07.12.2020 18:59 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Giving Thanks, Double Dip Unlikely Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory. While some investors are concerned...
07.12.2020 18:59 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No Wave is Good News For Stocks While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. While Vice President Biden declared victory based on statistical evidence compiled by the media,...
07.12.2020 18:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No More Lockdowns As the US opened up, real GDP rebounded sharply in the third quarter, growing at a 33.1% annual rate. However, real GDP is still down 2.9% from a year ago and the economy got a huge boost from spending by the federal government, which borrowed from the future in order to allow people to spend today. The federal government spent $6.55 trillion in the Fiscal Year ending September...