J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

02.12.2024 15:19 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Daten zum US-Verbrauchervertrauen im November deuten darauf hin, dass die US-Verbraucherinnen und -Verbraucher zunehmend zuversichtlich in die wirtschaftliche Zukunft blicken, wobei der jüngste Wert der stärkste seit Mitte 2023 ist. Besonders bemerkenswert war die Einschätzung der Verbraucher zum US-Arbeitsmarkt. Entgegen der jüngsten Schwäche der Beschäftigtenzahlen ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft erreichte der Optimismus in Bezug auf die künftige Verfügbarkeit von Arbeitsplätzen den höchsten Stand seit fast drei Jahren. Die wirtschaftliche Widerstandsfähigkeit in den USA hat die Anlegerinnen und Anleger dazu veranlasst, die Erwartungen an Zinssenkungen im nächsten Jahr zu senken, und die Märkte erwarten nun nur noch drei weitere Zinssenkungen bis Ende 2025 statt der fünf, die in den Prognosen der US-Notenbank (Fed) vom September impliziert werden. Wenn das Vertrauen der Verbraucherinnen und Verbraucher in den Arbeitsmarkt durch die bevorstehenden Arbeitsmarktdaten gestützt wird, scheint es wahrscheinlich, dass die Fed ihren geldpolitischen Kurs im nächsten Jahr ähnlich überdenken muss.

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