First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Nouvelles dès Prestataire de fonds
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Keeping Good State Policies
15.01.2021 17:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Keeping Good State Policies When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in Nevada, 15.8% in Arizona, and 15.3% in Florida. Meanwhile, state populations declined in West Virginia, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, and...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation, Debt, MMT, and Bitcoin
15.01.2021 17:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation, Debt, MMT, and Bitcoin We can’t possibly exhaust our thoughts on all these topics in one Monday Morning Outlook, but we thought we’d give it the old college try. This year, 2020, has been exceptionally interesting for investors. Not only have stocks soared to new highs and mortgage rates fallen to new lows, but Bitcoin, after languishing since 2017, has surged. Since bottoming near...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
15.01.2021 17:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist? The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.” ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Stimulus, Bailouts, and the Fed
15.01.2021 17:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Stimulus, Bailouts, and the Fed Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a “COVID-shutdown rescue package” seems like a no brainer, it’s been caught up in politics for months. Democrats have been holding out for a huge, potentially $3 trillion dollar bill, while Republicans are looking at debt in the years ahead and suggesting that...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation
07.12.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: 2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we’ve ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – 33.1% annualized real growth in Q3, and likely 5%+ growth in Q4...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Mnuchin, Powell and the Georgia Elections
07.12.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Mnuchin, Powell and the Georgia Elections Who’s in charge of fiscal policy? That’s the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury’s decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020. Back in March, right after the US had hunkered down due to COVID-19, Congress passed the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Giving Thanks, Double Dip Unlikely
07.12.2020 18:59 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Giving Thanks, Double Dip Unlikely Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory. While some investors are concerned...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: No Wave is Good News For Stocks
07.12.2020 18:59 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No Wave is Good News For Stocks While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. While Vice President Biden declared victory based on statistical evidence compiled by the media,...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: No More Lockdowns
07.12.2020 18:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No More Lockdowns As the US opened up, real GDP rebounded sharply in the third quarter, growing at a 33.1% annual rate. However, real GDP is still down 2.9% from a year ago and the economy got a huge boost from spending by the federal government, which borrowed from the future in order to allow people to spend today. The federal government spent $6.55 trillion in the Fiscal Year ending September...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Economy Poised for More Growth
07.12.2020 18:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Economy Poised for More Growth To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly. Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: GDP Soars in Third Quarter
20.10.2020 19:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: GDP Soars in Third Quarter There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third quarter real GDP rebounded...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: GDP Soars in Third Quarter
20.10.2020 19:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: GDP Soars in Third Quarter There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third quarter real GDP rebounded...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Profits Poised for Growth
20.10.2020 19:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Profits Poised for Growth COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s. But for the third quarter, the US is tracing out a V-shaped bounce and likely grew...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed Gambles on Inflation
20.10.2020 19:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Fed Gambles on Inflation Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That “idea” is that 2% inflation is the “correct” amount of inflation. The target is not just a one-year target, it is seemingly a permanent, long-term target. We find this idea very problematic. For...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Full Recovery Requires Reopening
20.10.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Full Recovery Requires Reopening With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate’s gaze. Conventional wisdom is worried that a lack of additional stimulus, and the potential for a drawn out and contested election, could impede...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Long Slog Recovery!
22.09.2020 11:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Long Slog Recovery! The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we’ve seen so far, it looks like the third quarter will be the mother of all economic rebounds. Even if industrial production and retail sales are flat –...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation and the Fed
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation and the Fed As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% “annualized” growth rate in Q3. Using just the data that have already come in so far, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDP Now Model says 30%. Either would be a record...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a “taking” in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as “just compensation” to businesses and workers for that taking. Basically, we decided to borrow from future generations in an attempt to stop a virus and save the economy. Federal...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500
22.09.2020 11:39 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500 If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it’s not even over. Compared to most analysts, this was a very bullish call. And then, when the market hit a pre-COVID19 peak of 3386 in mid-February, if...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Housing Revival
25.08.2020 16:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Housing Revival The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the...
