First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
Web: www.ftglobalportfolios.com/
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Nouvelles dès Prestataire de fonds
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Eyes on the Fed
02.11.2021 18:15 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve this week and our expectations is that it will finally announce an overdue tapering of quantitative easing. In addition, we expect Chairman Jerome Powell to make it clear in the press conference that he expects tapering to be completed by mid-2022. Inflation is clearly a problem. The CPI is up 5.4% from a year ago. When October data arrive the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Slower Growth in Q3
26.10.2021 10:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away…and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6 trillion, or 21.4% of GDP. In the next twelve months outlays soared to $7.6 trillion, or 36.2% of GDP. Outside of wartime, we know of no...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Respect Millennials
19.10.2021 18:27 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they’ve been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging well behind prior generations. Before we get into it, let’s define who we’re talking about: • Millennials (born 1981-96) • Generation...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Focus on Data, Not Spin
12.10.2021 13:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In 2009, after overly strict mark-to-market accounting rules were altered, we said the Financial Crisis was over. It was hard to get our voice heard, though, because both sides of the political aisle were busy saying the economy stunk. Political liberals tried to use the crisis to grow the government and increase bank regulation. Political conservatives said it was a “sugar high” and that President...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Cost of Lockdowns
12.10.2021 10:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Last March, when the government was considering whether to lockdown the economy, we argued that the longer we stayed locked down the more permanent the damage we would do to the underlying economy. It is now clear that the cost of the lockdowns is immense. We aren’t just talking about the $5 trillion in government borrowing from future generations, but the clear damage done to small businesses and...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Less Government, More Employment
12.10.2021 10:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Usually, the most important economic data report every month is the Employment Report and usually that key report comes out the first Friday of every month. But this month is throwing one of those periodic knuckleballs and so we need to wait an extra week, until Friday October 8. Nothing strange is really going on, and there’s no reason for conspiracy-thinking. Both the payroll report and the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Resist Inflation Complacency
23.09.2021 18:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Some analysts and investors breathed a big sigh of relief on inflation when it was reported last week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August versus a consensus expected 0.4%. But we think any sense of relief is premature. First, in no way, shape, or form, is a 0.3% increase in consumer prices indicative of low inflation. Consumer prices rose at a 3.3% annual rate in August, which is still...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Stocks Versus the Economy
14.09.2021 15:12 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: If you’ve read our two most recent Monday Morning Outlooks, you know we raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be? The first thing to recognize is that when we say we’re bullish on stocks that doesn’t mean we think the stock market is going to go up every day, every week, or even every month. It won’t. Nor does it exclude the possibility of...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Can the US “Fully Recover”?
14.09.2021 15:11 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In early 2020, when COVID hit, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.5%, wages for low-income earners were rising faster than wages for high-income earners, living standards were rising…the economy was on a roll. Then, because scientists said lockdowns would stop COVID, they turned the light switch off. Real GDP fell at a 5.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2020 and then an annualized...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 5,000
31.08.2021 13:31 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We’ve been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as “undervalued” since 2009. It still shows this today. In the past twelve years we’ve set a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Fed Being Tempted Into SIN
24.08.2021 14:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Narratives get more energy these days because of social media and cable TV, but they’ve always existed. Back in the 1970s, one narrative was that inflation was not caused by too much money creation by the Fed, as Milton Friedman argued. Instead, it was caused by OPEC or “inflation expectations.” And politicians came up with a plan…it proved disastrous. In October 1974, with inflation running at...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Capitalism vs. Socialism
17.08.2021 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: As we wrote last week, it’s not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions, little in our lives avoids governmental influences. The easiest way we can describe the current environment is that in the short-term, forecasting is easy. As the virus wanes and the U.S. rides a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Projecting Government
17.08.2021 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn’t have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough to not require much thought. Unfortunately, we don’t live in that world. Government is WAY too big. As a result, we spend more time...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Seeds of Stagflation
09.08.2021 10:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID. The problem is that getting back to where we were just prior to COVID is a low hurdle to clear. Real GDP would have grown much faster if COVID hadn’t happened. In...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Strong Growth in Q2
20.07.2021 15:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the federal government preparing to release its initial estimate of economic growth on July 29. At present, we are estimating that real GDP grew at an 8.3% annual rate in Q2, an...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 4,500…Or Higher
20.07.2021 15:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on Friday. Being bearish on equities has not worked for a long time. This does not mean the market always goes up. It doesn’t mean that the government is not creating future...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Twin Deficits” Won’t Tank the Dollar
20.07.2021 15:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the “twin deficits” and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, mean the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds, a little background is necessary. When people talk about the twin deficits they are talking about the budget deficit plus the trade deficit. Combined, these two...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief
20.07.2021 15:22 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell’s term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell. The case for Roger Ferguson is easy. First, presidents like to appoint people from their...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The “Fake Tight” Labor Market
20.07.2021 15:21 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Is the United States’ job market tight? Well, that totally depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million from February 2020, right before the COVID shutdowns. In addition, when asked, 9.3 million American workers say they are still looking for a job, up 3.6 million during the same...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Taper Tantrum Two
20.07.2021 15:20 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.” The Fed meets again later this week and, very likely, is still not thinking about thinking about raising rates. But that’s only part of the Fed’s tool kit. Bond purchases are another, and have been...
