First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
Web: www.ftglobalportfolios.com/
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: How About More Freedom?
06.07.2022 14:51 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: As we celebrate 246 years of national independence, our country is now more than two years into an economic recovery from the two-month COVID Lockdown Depression. Although the economy has improved dramatically from the complete lockdown bottom in April 2020, it’s still feeling lingering pain from policy mistakes made to address the pandemic. First the good news. The unemployment rate is down to...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: We’re Not Already in a Recession
27.06.2022 17:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model projects zero growth in Q2. We still think real GDP will turn out to be positive in the second quarter, but if you take the Atlanta GDP Now model at face value, it superficially appears that the odds of having two consecutive quarters of negative growth are close to 50%. That’s...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts
10.05.2022 10:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Those projections were based on our expectations for both profit growth in 2022 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. At that time, given interest rates, the US stock market was still under our estimate of fair value. This is no longer true. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Whipping Inflation
10.05.2022 10:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say. And so the key to reducing the inflation we’re experiencing today – the highest inflation in forty years – is the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates, like it will do on Wednesday, as well as pursuing an aggressive course of Quantitative Tightening. But the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Focus on the Money, Not Rates
10.05.2022 10:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No one can say that the Federal Reserve can’t do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of catching up to do. These days, that’s virtually impossible. Consumer prices are up 8.5% from a year ago, the largest increase since 1981. And while the Fed is talking tough...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Slower Growth in Q1
19.04.2022 12:13 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Real GDP, in the US, grew 5.5% in 2021, the fastest growth for any calendar year since the Reagan Boom in the mid-1980s. In spite of this, for the two years ending Q4-2021, real GDP grew just 1.6% annually, which is below its pre-shutdown trend. Because of the shutdown and government actions growth has been uneven. Goods consumption is up 7.5% at an annual rate in the past two years, while services...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Housing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack
12.04.2022 12:52 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions. That’s not wrong to do, after all Federal Reserve rate cycles are important. Lately, the market has settled on expectations for a total of about 2.25% or more of interest rate hikes this year. The result is a jump in many longer-term yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is 2.77%, while the typical 30-year mortgage has climbed...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: We Are All Keynesians Now
05.04.2022 18:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase “we are all Keynesians now.” John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of economic activity. Friedman and Nixon...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation Games
30.03.2022 10:14 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation is a political lightning rod. As a result, there is a good deal of misconception around it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 7.9% from a year ago and will likely peak in the 8.5 - 9.0% range sometime in the next couple of months, the highest since 1981. Politicians blame war, or COVID, but the simple explanation is just too much money creation. Others think inflation will be temporary...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: What the Fed “Should” Do
23.03.2022 10:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Normally when we write about public policy – monetary policy, taxes, spending, trade, and regulations – we mainly focus on what we think policymakers will do and the likely effects on the economy or the financial markets. For example, we now think the Fed is on a path to raise rates gradually and persistently throughout 2022, with some possibility of a rate hike of a half a percentage point along the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: It’s the Money
15.03.2022 18:36 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With every passing month, politicians and economists try to blame inflation on anything but excess money growth. As inflation gets worse, just like the 1970s, the list of excuses for inflation grows longer. At the start of the year, politicians on the left were blaming higher inflation on greedy companies; now they’re blaming Putin. Meanwhile, politicians on the right started out blaming higher...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Will Russian Sanctions Lead China to Sell US Debt?
09.03.2022 16:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led western nations to impose the most draconian economic sanctions in the modern era. The Russian stock and bond markets have collapsed, along with Russia’s currency, the ruble. Many investors fear that China, which has always wanted control of Taiwan, will use the mayhem of the moment to take it. Obviously, this would create even more uncertainty and mayhem, but China...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Thoughts on Ukraine
01.03.2022 18:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Sticking to Our Targets, For Now Late last year we unveiled our stock market forecast for 2022, projecting the S&P 500 would rise to 5,250 and the Dow Jones Industrials average would climb to 40,000. Since then, however, equities have dropped, with (now realized) fears about Russia invading Ukraine and the recognition that inflation is a more persistent problem than the Federal Reserve had previously...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Russia and Rate Hikes
15.02.2022 16:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The financial markets have been on tenterhooks lately for two main reasons: Russia and rate hikes. By the time you read this, Russian tanks may already be rolling across the Ukrainian border. If not, we think an invasion of eastern Ukraine will probably start soon after the Olympics, to avoid embarrassing China, which is a Russian ally (for now). Not invading at all after a big build-up of...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Not All That
10.02.2022 11:06 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Nothing is normal about the current business cycle; it really is unique. It started with a massive COVID-related lockdown, which caused the deepest and fastest recession on record. Then we had a recovery based on re-opening plus an unprecedented peacetime expansion in government spending. But rarely have we seen an economic report as misinterpreted as Friday’s jobs report. The key headline that...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Rate Hikes Finally on the Way
02.02.2022 17:08 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Federal Reserve’s policy statement from last week plus Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference made it abundantly clear it is ready to start raising short-term interest rates in March. As of early this morning, the futures market for federal funds was pricing in five rate hikes (of 25 basis points each) in 2022. We think that many rate hikes are warranted; we’d even support more. The Fed...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The 2021 Finish: Fast Growth, High Inflation
25.01.2022 17:08 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When fourth quarter GDP data is released later this week, it will show that 2021 finished on a high note. Unfortunately, the high note included not only strong economic growth but also rapid inflation. This shouldn’t be a surprise; it’s what you get when you mix a huge surge in government spending with very loose monetary policy. At present, we estimate that real GDP grew at a 5.7% annual rate in...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Who Gets the Blame for Inflation
18.01.2022 19:11 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming “greedy” businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are greedy, in the sense that they’re run by...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Job Market Making Progress
17.01.2022 18:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday’s job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small-business start-ups and entrepreneurship. Nonfarm payrolls rose 199,000 in December versus a consensus expected 450,000. Payroll growth was revised up a combined 141,000 in October and November,...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Welcome to 2022: The Winds of Change
17.01.2022 18:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Welcome to 2022! We can’t imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, the winds of change are blowing hard. The economy has been buffeted by short-term factors since 2020; this year, long-term fundamentals should re-assert themselves as the most important drivers of economic and financial performance. First, the obvious: COVID and COVID-related...
