First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
Web: www.ftglobalportfolios.com/
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Nouvelles dès Prestataire de fonds
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 5,000
31.08.2021 13:31 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We’ve been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as “undervalued” since 2009. It still shows this today. In the past twelve years we’ve set a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Fed Being Tempted Into SIN
24.08.2021 14:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Narratives get more energy these days because of social media and cable TV, but they’ve always existed. Back in the 1970s, one narrative was that inflation was not caused by too much money creation by the Fed, as Milton Friedman argued. Instead, it was caused by OPEC or “inflation expectations.” And politicians came up with a plan…it proved disastrous. In October 1974, with inflation running at...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Capitalism vs. Socialism
17.08.2021 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: As we wrote last week, it’s not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions, little in our lives avoids governmental influences. The easiest way we can describe the current environment is that in the short-term, forecasting is easy. As the virus wanes and the U.S. rides a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Projecting Government
17.08.2021 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn’t have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough to not require much thought. Unfortunately, we don’t live in that world. Government is WAY too big. As a result, we spend more time...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Seeds of Stagflation
09.08.2021 10:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID. The problem is that getting back to where we were just prior to COVID is a low hurdle to clear. Real GDP would have grown much faster if COVID hadn’t happened. In...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Strong Growth in Q2
20.07.2021 15:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the federal government preparing to release its initial estimate of economic growth on July 29. At present, we are estimating that real GDP grew at an 8.3% annual rate in Q2, an...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 4,500…Or Higher
20.07.2021 15:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on Friday. Being bearish on equities has not worked for a long time. This does not mean the market always goes up. It doesn’t mean that the government is not creating future...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Twin Deficits” Won’t Tank the Dollar
20.07.2021 15:25 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the “twin deficits” and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, mean the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds, a little background is necessary. When people talk about the twin deficits they are talking about the budget deficit plus the trade deficit. Combined, these two...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief
20.07.2021 15:22 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell’s term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell. The case for Roger Ferguson is easy. First, presidents like to appoint people from their...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The “Fake Tight” Labor Market
20.07.2021 15:21 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Is the United States’ job market tight? Well, that totally depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million from February 2020, right before the COVID shutdowns. In addition, when asked, 9.3 million American workers say they are still looking for a job, up 3.6 million during the same...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Taper Tantrum Two
20.07.2021 15:20 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.” The Fed meets again later this week and, very likely, is still not thinking about thinking about raising rates. But that’s only part of the Fed’s tool kit. Bond purchases are another, and have been...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: There’s Nothing Normal About This Recovery
20.07.2021 15:20 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We keep hearing people make comparisons between this recovery and those of the past as if it’s apples-to-apples. For example, comparing job growth today to job growth after the 2008-2009 Panic. All in an effort to make the case that government spending creates economic growth. But there is nothing normal about the current economy. The things our government leaders have done in the past year are...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation Revisionism
20.07.2021 15:19 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation Revisionism Talk about revisionist history! A recent tweetstorm from an opinion leader at the NY Times says that, looking back, he wonders what all the fuss was about inflation in the 1970s. It wasn’t “that high,” he says, and so the risk of returning to that kind of inflation should not be a serious concern today, because it wouldn’t even be that bad if we went back there. Just so we...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: A Question for the Fed
26.05.2021 15:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: It’s not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become “secular” and “serious”? These are important questions and only the Fed has the answers. In April, the consumer price index was up 4.2% from a year ago; producer prices were...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Unsustainable
26.05.2021 15:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government “stimulus” checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far above where they would be if COVID had never happened,...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden and Powell Versus Summers and Dudley
26.05.2021 15:06 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One of the best economic debates that’s happening right now isn’t between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it’s between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary “stimulus” as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy. In one corner we have President Joe Biden and Fed Chief...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Resisting the Budget Blowout
26.05.2021 15:05 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes. Ultimately, though, it’s extremely important to keep in mind that the legislative process surrounding these bills is going to be long and arduous and that...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Sugar High Economy
26.05.2021 15:05 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get? Answer: Some really strong economic data. The problem is that this rapid growth, like a “sugar high,” is not going to last. Look for the economy to slow in the future as unprecedented government spending and Federal Reserve money...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 20210419 Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap
26.05.2021 15:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic. It bottomed at roughly 2,224 during the nationwide strategy of shutting down for “15 days to slow the spread.” Because this was not a normal recession, and the market went into the shutdown undervalued, we believed stock prices would recover as business returned to more normal levels. By...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Housing Boom to Continue
26.05.2021 15:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record (going back to 1991). Given these gains, some are wondering whether housing is back in a 2000s-type bubble. But a deep dive into the data suggests we are not. To assess home prices...
