First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation and the Fed
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation and the Fed As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% “annualized” growth rate in Q3. Using just the data that have already come in so far, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDP Now Model says 30%. Either would be a record...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a “taking” in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as “just compensation” to businesses and workers for that taking. Basically, we decided to borrow from future generations in an attempt to stop a virus and save the economy. Federal...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500
22.09.2020 11:39 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500 If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it’s not even over. Compared to most analysts, this was a very bullish call. And then, when the market hit a pre-COVID19 peak of 3386 in mid-February, if...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Housing Revival
25.08.2020 16:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Housing Revival The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda
25.08.2020 16:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda Election Day is eleven weeks from tomorrow. In political time, this is an eternity. However, with the White House, about one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives on the ballot, this election is significant. Particularly because the two presidential candidates have such stark differences in policy perspectives, especially with respect to taxes. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: A Healing Economy
25.08.2020 16:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: A Healing Economy It’s going to take years for the US economy to fully heal from the economic disaster brought about by COVID-19 and the government-mandated shutdowns which continue to limit economic activity across the country. When we talk about a full recovery, we don’t simply mean getting real GDP back where it was in late 2019; a full recovery comes when the unemployment rate gets back below...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Don’t Play GDP Politics
04.08.2020 10:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Play GDP Politics These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are “mostly peaceful” or “violent,” and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines blared that real GDP declined 32.9% in the second quarter, suggesting that our country’s output of goods and services was roughly 1/3 lower...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Bottom Fell Out
28.07.2020 12:47 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Thursday’s initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst quarter we’ve ever had since the military wind-down immediately following World War II was -10% in the first quarter of 1958, when, not by coincidence, the US was hit by...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
22.07.2020 11:51 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch “There is no such thing as a free lunch.” It’s been attributed to many different people, Milton Friedman and Robert Heinlein, among others. Regardless of who said it, we think it’s one of the most basic economic truths. A lunch has to come from somewhere, and once it is consumed, it’s not available for someone else to consume. ‘Another way to say it, someone...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Holding Colleges Accountable
13.07.2020 18:57 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Holding Colleges Accountable It’s time to think about something other than COVID, statues, the election, and defunding the police. How about higher education? Specifically, student loans and grants. Just like the bipartisan efforts to making housing more affordable, these programs were well-intentioned. But, also like the housing market, they have led to serious problems. The US has about $1.5...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Economy and The Virus
07.07.2020 10:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Economy and The Virus Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and an acceptance of economic shutdowns. Originally, the scientists said we needed 15...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Not Locking Down
07.07.2020 10:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Not Locking Down A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don’t expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher. After the peak in early April, the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Saving and the Shutdown
07.07.2020 10:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Saving and the Shutdown Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed is Committed to Low Rates
07.07.2020 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Fed is Committed to Low Rates The one key takeaway from last week’s Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week ahead, as we get more reports confirming the economic recovery started back in May. The Federal Reserve conveyed that commitment in a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Recession is Over
07.07.2020 10:42 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Recession is Over The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest. Friday’s employment report should leave little doubt that the US economy has already hit bottom and is starting to recover. Every economist brave enough to make a public forecast thought nonfarm payrolls would drop in May and the unemployment...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: More Green Shots
07.07.2020 10:42 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: More Green Shoots A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don’t anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don’t anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024. However, there is a growing amount of evidence that the economy may have hit bottom in May. It’s important to be cautious; the evidence for having hit bottom already is...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
27.05.2020 17:47 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Signs of Economic Life This year’s experiment with government-imposed lockdowns has been a fiasco. We should have been focused on sealing-off nursing homes and limiting mass indoor events, while the vast majority of businesses that were shutdown could have kept operating, with natural social distancing. Now, as most people (those that are not elderly or immuno-compromised) realize their health...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
19.05.2020 14:20 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: How Are We Going To Pay For All This? The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased government spending during the subprime-mortgage financial panic pushed the deficit to 9.8% of GDP. This year’s the budget deficit will, quite simply, blow that record out of the water. The Congressional Budget Office recently totaled up all the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
05.05.2020 17:27 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Light at the End of the Tunnel When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to around 17.0%, the highest reading since at least 1948. To put that in perspective, during the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
05.05.2020 17:27 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: GDP: Bad, And Getting Worse Before the Coronavirus, the US economy was cruising for what looked like 3% annualized growth in real GDP in the first quarter. But the effects of both natural social distancing and government-mandated lockdowns crushed economic growth in March. As a result, we now think real GDP contracted at a 3.7% annual rate in Q1, led by a massive drop in inventories as well as...
