First Trust Global Portfolios Limited

First Trust Global Portfolios Limited

Web: www.ftglobalportfolios.com/
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  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: This Rally Shouldn't Last

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Democrats Overperform

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Beware a “Gridlock Rally”

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Drop in Budget Deficit is a “Sugar High”

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Last Hurrah?

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Second Thoughts on Bernanke’s Nobel Prize

    18.10.2022 10:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Nobel Prize in Economics was recently awarded to former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, as well as professors Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, for their work on understanding the role banks play in the economy, especially during a financial crisis. All three of them have done important work that’s worthy of recognition. Banks are key parts of the economy that, by assessing the...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Reports: Solid Growth, Persistent Inflation

    11.10.2022 11:05 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Recent economic reports further undermine the politically-motivated argument from earlier this year that the US was already in a recession. They also undercut the Fed’s hopes that inflation will soon subside. On the job front, nonfarm payrolls rose 263,000 in September while the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, tying the lowest level since 1969. Payrolls are up at an average monthly pace of...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: No Recession, Yet

    04.10.2022 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet. The distortions of economic activity from lockdowns, massive deficit spending, and money printing are immense. It’s hard to imagine the US can unwind these policies and not have a recession. Monetary policy, for example, is going to have to get tight and stay tight to bring down inflation and keep it there, so we don’t get into...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: More Trouble Ahead

    27.09.2022 12:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 677. What a time to buy! After that we remained bullish. We didn’t recommend selling in spite of a wide range of fears that spooked many others, including the Great Recession lasting through 2010, a double-dip...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?

    20.09.2022 11:38 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead. Instead, she’s in the middle of one of the most important races of her life. What we have been talking about – and will keep talking about until we think Americans understand it – is monetary policy and the Federal Reserve. Ludwig von Mises once said that the value of money is at least as important to a society as...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up

    13.09.2022 12:10 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money. The Federal Reserve kept short-term rates artificially low and the M2 measure of the money supply soared. Now, with rising short-term rates and slower growth in M2 sending mortgage rates higher, the housing sector has a bad case of indigestion. Sales are down, construction is down, and the most recent reports on home prices show a...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden’s Student-Loan Fiasco

    13.09.2022 12:09 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: that already exists is only a small part of the policy change. The much bigger change, and the one that the market has finally begun to absorb, is limiting future payments on debts to 5% of income, but only after the borrower’s income rises above roughly $30,000 per year. For example, if someone makes $70,000 per year, then no matter how much they borrow they’re limited to paying $2,000 per year (5% of...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch

    13.09.2022 12:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July. That’ll put the target short-term rate at 3.125%, the first time it’s been north of 3.0% since early 2008. Why are we so...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Silly Season

    23.08.2022 10:11 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With less than three months left before the 2022 mid-term elections, it is officially silly season when it comes to interpreting economic reports. For many analysts it’s pretty much all politics all the time, with data seen through a political lens first, and with real unbiased economic analysis coming maybe second, if ever. It started off with those saying we’re in a recession because, at least...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Distorted

    23.08.2022 10:10 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One thing we must remember when looking at economic data, is that everything is distorted. The US (in fact, much of the world) panicked in 2020. COVID caused governments around the world to implement unprecedented policies. The US borrowed, printed, and spent its way through the lockdowns. We believe, and we don’t think it’s hard to understand, that the economic bill for these policies, is soon coming...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Tax Hikes: Bad, But Bearable

    08.08.2022 17:02 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With the Senate having passed a budget plan yesterday with only Democratic votes as well as a tie broken by Vice President Harris, it is only a matter of time before President Biden signs the first significant tax hike since the “Fiscal Cliff” tax hike in early 2013. What’s important to keep in mind is that it could have been worse…much, much worse. President Biden originally set out to raise the...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Monetary Muddle

    02.08.2022 10:34 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) on Wednesday. The day before, the Fed had released M2 money supply data for June and it fell slightly, the second decline in three months. At his press conference after the rate hike, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was vague about the Fed’s future intentions on rates, but was not asked one single...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Refocusing the Fed

    19.07.2022 14:19 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true. Yes, raising rates may slow the economy, but that alone won’t fix inflation. Starting in 2009, for seven years the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at zero and yet inflation never accelerated. So, if...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Mortgage Reset Alarmism Is Off the Mark

    12.07.2022 11:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Some investors think the US is already in a recession. As we wrote two weeks ago and as recent data have confirmed, we don’t think that’s the case. Industrial production is up at a rapid pace so far this year, while payrolls have expanded at a monthly pace of 457,000 and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.6% from 3.9%. Real gross domestic income (Real GDI), a companion to real GDP that is just...

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