First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
11.06.2019 15:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No Need for Rate Cuts At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts. The US economy doesn’t need rate cuts. At present, we are projecting that real GDP is growing at about a 1.5% pace in the second quarter. That’s slower than the recent trend...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
04.06.2019 16:53 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Plow Horse Returns? We haven’t been worried about a trade conflict with China, which has a long track record of pirating intellectual property and is a potential military rival in the (not too distant) future. The US has enormous leverage with China, given our trade deficit with the country and the ability of firms to shift supply chains toward alternatives, like Vietnam, Mexico, and India. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
29.05.2019 15:22 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Foreign Slowness Not an Obstacle One consistent theme we’ve heard lately among pessimistic analysts and investors is that slower growth abroad is a headwind for economic growth in the US. Softness in Europe or China, they say, bodes poorly for the continuation of US expansion. The standard theory, the conventional wisdom, is that slower growth abroad means slower growth in US exports. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
21.05.2019 16:42 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Count on a Rate Cut At the close of activity on Friday the futures market in federal funds was projecting a 75% chance of at least one rate cut this year. From now through the end of 2020, the market is projecting two rate cuts. We thought markets stopped believing in Santa Claus a long time ago, but unfortunately it doesn’t appear so. The US economy is nowhere even close to needing one...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
24.07.2018 14:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Yield Curve Inversion (16 July 2018) The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession. In reality, an inverted...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
24.07.2018 14:42 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Job Market: From Strength to Strength (09 July 2018) The US labor market is going from strength to strength. Like with corporate earnings, June jobs data beat consensus estimates - up 213,000 - pushing the average monthly gain for the past year to 198,000 per month. Meanwhile the unemployment rate jumped from 3.8% to 4.0%. Why? Because the civilian labor force grew by 601,000. We hate blowing...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
24.07.2018 14:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Economy Surges in Q2 (23 July 2018) Economic growth surged in the second quarter this year. The only question is, by how much? Predicting this Friday’s GDP report is trickier than usual. First, it’s the initial report for the quarter. Second, we have to wait until Thursday for key data on exports and imports, which is particularly important because the trade sector looks to have had an unusually...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
03.07.2018 15:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Election Outlook (02 July 2018) At least three reasons suggest the Democrats should be optimistic about taking control of the House this November. First, the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in mid-terms. These include “tidal waves” against the president’s party like in 1994 and 2010, when newly-elected presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama watched their parties lose 54...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
20.06.2018 11:58 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Bonds Misjudge the Future (18/06/18) We’ve always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued. Clearly, the forecasted recession never came. Not only is the economy accelerating, but the recovery is likely to...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
12.06.2018 11:21 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Is 2020 the Year for Recession? According to former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, the U.S. economy will get a Wile E. Coyote surprise in 2020. You know, just when everyone thinks he caught the Roadrunner, Wile notices he has run straight off a cliff, plummets seemingly forever before hitting the bottom in a cloud of dust, and then, just for spite, an anvil lands on his head. In other words, Bernanke...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
30.05.2018 16:13 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Higher Rates Won’t Cause Debt Spiral (29 May 2018) For decades, investors have feared the national debt growing to unsustainable levels and destroying the US economy. Back in 1981, the public debt of the federal government was $1 trillion; today it’s more than $21 trillion. At some point, their theory goes, additional debt is going to be the fiscal straw that breaks the camel’s back. The...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
22.05.2018 18:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Why Not 50? (21/05/18) Asking if the Federal Reserve will lift the federal funds rate on June 13 is like asking if Las Vegas Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who has stopped 94.7% of the shots against him in the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs, will stop the next one. It’s a virtual lock. And everyone knows the rate hike is almost guaranteed to be the very same 25 basis point (bp) increment the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
17.05.2018 16:17 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Labor Market Strength (14/05/18) The US labor market has rarely been stronger. Recent figures from the Labor Department show US businesses had a total of 6.550 million job openings in March versus 6.585 million people who were unemployed. That’s a gap of only 35,000 workers. By contrast, this gap never fell below 2 million in the previous economic expansion that ended in 2007, and stood at...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
08.05.2018 16:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Compare Stocks to GDP (07 May 2018) The bull market in U.S. stocks, which started on March 9, 2009, gets little respect. Those who have been bullish, and right, are mocked as “perma-bulls,” while “perma-bears,” who have been repeatedly wrong, are quoted endlessly. We don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the number of times a recession has been predicted. Brexit, Grexit, adjustable...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
26.04.2018 11:48 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Modest Growth in Q1 (23 April 2018) From mid-2009 through early 2017, the US economy grew at a real average annual rate of 2.2%. Not a recession, but not robust growth either, which is why we called it a Plow Horse Economy. For the first quarter of 2018, we expect growth of 1.9% at an annualized rate, right in-line with a Plow Horse. But that doesn’t mean the economy is still a Plow Horse. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
17.04.2018 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Thoughts on Trade (16 April 2018) When the report on international trade came out earlier this month, protectionists were up in arms. Through February, the US’ merchandise (goods only, not services) trade deficit with the rest of the world was the largest for any two-month period on record. “Economic nationalists” from both sides of the political aisle, think this situation is unsustainable. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
13.04.2018 12:06 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: A Generation of Interest Rate Illiterates An entire generation of investors has been misled about interest rates: where they come from, what they mean, how they’re determined. Lots of this confusion has to do with the role of central banks. Many think central banks, like the Fed, control all interest rates. This isn’t true. They can only control short-term rates. It’s true these can have an...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
04.04.2018 12:08 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Ignoring the Invisible Hand (02 April 2018) One of the most important questions we have about our country’s future is whether prosperity itself will make the American people lose sight of where that prosperity comes from; whether we’ll forget to cultivate the attitudes about freedom, property rights, and hard work that have made not only us great but also all the other places that have followed the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
04.04.2018 12:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When Volatility is Just Volatility (26 March 2018) Stock market volatility scares people. But, volatility itself isn’t necessarily bad. Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars. These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
04.04.2018 12:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Powell Fed: A New Era (19 March 2018) In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed…until this year. But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don’t expect the unexpected, however, when the Federal Reserve finishes its...
