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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: GDP Soars in Third Quarter
20.10.2020 19:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: GDP Soars in Third Quarter There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third quarter real GDP rebounded...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: GDP Soars in Third Quarter
20.10.2020 19:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: GDP Soars in Third Quarter There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third quarter real GDP rebounded...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Profits Poised for Growth
20.10.2020 19:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Profits Poised for Growth COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s. But for the third quarter, the US is tracing out a V-shaped bounce and likely grew...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed Gambles on Inflation
20.10.2020 19:01 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Fed Gambles on Inflation Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That “idea” is that 2% inflation is the “correct” amount of inflation. The target is not just a one-year target, it is seemingly a permanent, long-term target. We find this idea very problematic. For...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Full Recovery Requires Reopening
20.10.2020 19:00 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Full Recovery Requires Reopening With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate’s gaze. Conventional wisdom is worried that a lack of additional stimulus, and the potential for a drawn out and contested election, could impede...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Long Slog Recovery!
22.09.2020 11:41 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Long Slog Recovery! The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we’ve seen so far, it looks like the third quarter will be the mother of all economic rebounds. Even if industrial production and retail sales are flat –...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation and the Fed
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation and the Fed As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% “annualized” growth rate in Q3. Using just the data that have already come in so far, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDP Now Model says 30%. Either would be a record...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden
22.09.2020 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a “taking” in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as “just compensation” to businesses and workers for that taking. Basically, we decided to borrow from future generations in an attempt to stop a virus and save the economy. Federal...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500
22.09.2020 11:39 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500 If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it’s not even over. Compared to most analysts, this was a very bullish call. And then, when the market hit a pre-COVID19 peak of 3386 in mid-February, if...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Housing Revival
25.08.2020 16:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Housing Revival The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda
25.08.2020 16:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda Election Day is eleven weeks from tomorrow. In political time, this is an eternity. However, with the White House, about one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives on the ballot, this election is significant. Particularly because the two presidential candidates have such stark differences in policy perspectives, especially with respect to taxes. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: A Healing Economy
25.08.2020 16:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: A Healing Economy It’s going to take years for the US economy to fully heal from the economic disaster brought about by COVID-19 and the government-mandated shutdowns which continue to limit economic activity across the country. When we talk about a full recovery, we don’t simply mean getting real GDP back where it was in late 2019; a full recovery comes when the unemployment rate gets back below...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Don’t Play GDP Politics
04.08.2020 10:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Play GDP Politics These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are “mostly peaceful” or “violent,” and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines blared that real GDP declined 32.9% in the second quarter, suggesting that our country’s output of goods and services was roughly 1/3 lower...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Bottom Fell Out
28.07.2020 12:47 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Thursday’s initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst quarter we’ve ever had since the military wind-down immediately following World War II was -10% in the first quarter of 1958, when, not by coincidence, the US was hit by...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
22.07.2020 11:51 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch “There is no such thing as a free lunch.” It’s been attributed to many different people, Milton Friedman and Robert Heinlein, among others. Regardless of who said it, we think it’s one of the most basic economic truths. A lunch has to come from somewhere, and once it is consumed, it’s not available for someone else to consume. ‘Another way to say it, someone...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Holding Colleges Accountable
13.07.2020 18:57 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Holding Colleges Accountable It’s time to think about something other than COVID, statues, the election, and defunding the police. How about higher education? Specifically, student loans and grants. Just like the bipartisan efforts to making housing more affordable, these programs were well-intentioned. But, also like the housing market, they have led to serious problems. The US has about $1.5...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Economy and The Virus
07.07.2020 10:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Economy and The Virus Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and an acceptance of economic shutdowns. Originally, the scientists said we needed 15...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Not Locking Down
07.07.2020 10:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Not Locking Down A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don’t expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher. After the peak in early April, the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Saving and the Shutdown
07.07.2020 10:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Saving and the Shutdown Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed is Committed to Low Rates
07.07.2020 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Fed is Committed to Low Rates The one key takeaway from last week’s Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week ahead, as we get more reports confirming the economic recovery started back in May. The Federal Reserve conveyed that commitment in a...
