First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: No Recession, Yet
04.10.2022 11:40 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet. The distortions of economic activity from lockdowns, massive deficit spending, and money printing are immense. It’s hard to imagine the US can unwind these policies and not have a recession. Monetary policy, for example, is going to have to get tight and stay tight to bring down inflation and keep it there, so we don’t get into...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: More Trouble Ahead
27.09.2022 12:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 677. What a time to buy! After that we remained bullish. We didn’t recommend selling in spite of a wide range of fears that spooked many others, including the Great Recession lasting through 2010, a double-dip...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?
20.09.2022 11:38 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead. Instead, she’s in the middle of one of the most important races of her life. What we have been talking about – and will keep talking about until we think Americans understand it – is monetary policy and the Federal Reserve. Ludwig von Mises once said that the value of money is at least as important to a society as...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up
13.09.2022 12:10 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money. The Federal Reserve kept short-term rates artificially low and the M2 measure of the money supply soared. Now, with rising short-term rates and slower growth in M2 sending mortgage rates higher, the housing sector has a bad case of indigestion. Sales are down, construction is down, and the most recent reports on home prices show a...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden’s Student-Loan Fiasco
13.09.2022 12:09 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: that already exists is only a small part of the policy change. The much bigger change, and the one that the market has finally begun to absorb, is limiting future payments on debts to 5% of income, but only after the borrower’s income rises above roughly $30,000 per year. For example, if someone makes $70,000 per year, then no matter how much they borrow they’re limited to paying $2,000 per year (5% of...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch
13.09.2022 12:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July. That’ll put the target short-term rate at 3.125%, the first time it’s been north of 3.0% since early 2008. Why are we so...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Silly Season
23.08.2022 10:11 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With less than three months left before the 2022 mid-term elections, it is officially silly season when it comes to interpreting economic reports. For many analysts it’s pretty much all politics all the time, with data seen through a political lens first, and with real unbiased economic analysis coming maybe second, if ever. It started off with those saying we’re in a recession because, at least...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Distorted
23.08.2022 10:10 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One thing we must remember when looking at economic data, is that everything is distorted. The US (in fact, much of the world) panicked in 2020. COVID caused governments around the world to implement unprecedented policies. The US borrowed, printed, and spent its way through the lockdowns. We believe, and we don’t think it’s hard to understand, that the economic bill for these policies, is soon coming...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Tax Hikes: Bad, But Bearable
08.08.2022 17:02 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: With the Senate having passed a budget plan yesterday with only Democratic votes as well as a tie broken by Vice President Harris, it is only a matter of time before President Biden signs the first significant tax hike since the “Fiscal Cliff” tax hike in early 2013. What’s important to keep in mind is that it could have been worse…much, much worse. President Biden originally set out to raise the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Monetary Muddle
02.08.2022 10:34 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) on Wednesday. The day before, the Fed had released M2 money supply data for June and it fell slightly, the second decline in three months. At his press conference after the rate hike, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was vague about the Fed’s future intentions on rates, but was not asked one single...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Refocusing the Fed
19.07.2022 14:19 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true. Yes, raising rates may slow the economy, but that alone won’t fix inflation. Starting in 2009, for seven years the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at zero and yet inflation never accelerated. So, if...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Mortgage Reset Alarmism Is Off the Mark
12.07.2022 11:26 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Some investors think the US is already in a recession. As we wrote two weeks ago and as recent data have confirmed, we don’t think that’s the case. Industrial production is up at a rapid pace so far this year, while payrolls have expanded at a monthly pace of 457,000 and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.6% from 3.9%. Real gross domestic income (Real GDI), a companion to real GDP that is just...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: How About More Freedom?
06.07.2022 14:51 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: As we celebrate 246 years of national independence, our country is now more than two years into an economic recovery from the two-month COVID Lockdown Depression. Although the economy has improved dramatically from the complete lockdown bottom in April 2020, it’s still feeling lingering pain from policy mistakes made to address the pandemic. First the good news. The unemployment rate is down to...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: We’re Not Already in a Recession
27.06.2022 17:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model projects zero growth in Q2. We still think real GDP will turn out to be positive in the second quarter, but if you take the Atlanta GDP Now model at face value, it superficially appears that the odds of having two consecutive quarters of negative growth are close to 50%. That’s...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts
10.05.2022 10:30 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Those projections were based on our expectations for both profit growth in 2022 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. At that time, given interest rates, the US stock market was still under our estimate of fair value. This is no longer true. ...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Whipping Inflation
10.05.2022 10:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say. And so the key to reducing the inflation we’re experiencing today – the highest inflation in forty years – is the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates, like it will do on Wednesday, as well as pursuing an aggressive course of Quantitative Tightening. But the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Focus on the Money, Not Rates
10.05.2022 10:29 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: No one can say that the Federal Reserve can’t do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of catching up to do. These days, that’s virtually impossible. Consumer prices are up 8.5% from a year ago, the largest increase since 1981. And while the Fed is talking tough...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Slower Growth in Q1
19.04.2022 12:13 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Real GDP, in the US, grew 5.5% in 2021, the fastest growth for any calendar year since the Reagan Boom in the mid-1980s. In spite of this, for the two years ending Q4-2021, real GDP grew just 1.6% annually, which is below its pre-shutdown trend. Because of the shutdown and government actions growth has been uneven. Goods consumption is up 7.5% at an annual rate in the past two years, while services...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Housing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack
12.04.2022 12:52 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions. That’s not wrong to do, after all Federal Reserve rate cycles are important. Lately, the market has settled on expectations for a total of about 2.25% or more of interest rate hikes this year. The result is a jump in many longer-term yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is 2.77%, while the typical 30-year mortgage has climbed...
