First Trust Global Portfolios Limited
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
31.03.2020 17:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Coronavirus Contraction Due to fears about the Coronavirus – more specifically, the forceful government measures designed to halt its spread, the US is on the front edge of the sharpest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression. The US economy was on track to grow at around a 3.0% annual rate in the first quarter before fears and response measures escalated. Don’t just take our...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
31.03.2020 17:37 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Fed Fires Bazooka at Coronavirus Back in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a “bazooka” to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This time around, it’s the Federal Reserve firing a bazooka at the Coronavirus, with more possibly to come. Instead of waiting until...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
05.03.2020 10:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Fed Should Be Decisive By the time you read this, the Fed may already have cut rates. That is the situation we find ourselves in given the recent correction in equities, which were at a record high only eight trading days ago but were down 12.8% from that peak as of the market close on Friday. Fears about the economic effects of the Coronavirus have driven equity prices lower and led to calls for...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
02.03.2020 12:53 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One of the worst bipartisan policy decisions in the past generation was the aggressive government push in the 1990s and 2000s to promote homeownership, beyond what the free market could handle. Policymakers encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to gobble up lots of subprime debt, in turn boosting lending to borrowers who couldn’t handle their loans. But now a bizarre idea is making the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
02.03.2020 12:51 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Thirty years ago, many in the US were in fear that a rising power in Asia was on the verge of eclipsing the US. Now it’s China, back then it was Japan. Back in the late 1980s Japan had become the second largest economy in the world after the US, and seemed like a juggernaut that couldn’t be stopped. Many center-left economists thought that the post-World War II experience of Japan proved that...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
02.03.2020 12:50 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, not only beating the consensus forecast, but also forecasts from every single economics group. Since January 2019 (12 months ago), both payrolls and civilian employment – an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups – are up 2.1 million. The labor force – those who are either working or looking for work – is up 1.5 million, while the...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
02.03.2020 12:49 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Fears about the coronavirus knocked down equities last week, while a flight to safety brought the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 1.51% at the Friday close versus 1.69% the week prior and 1.92% at the end of 2019. The consensus in the futures market is that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points this year. We think that is ridiculous. The economy doesn’t need...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
28.01.2020 16:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Look for Steadiness from the Fed The Federal Reserve is set to make its first policy statement of the year on Wednesday, so this is as good a time as any to reiterate our view that the Fed is likely to keep short-term interest rates steady through 2020 and, while pressures will build, the Fed seems content to hold them steady next year, as well. We still think monetary policy is far from tight, and...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
23.01.2020 11:22 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Moderate Growth in Q4 Back in mid-November, the highly respected GDP forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (also known as “GDP Now”), estimated that real GDP would only grow at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, which, if accurate, would have been the slowest growth for any quarter since 2015. At the time, we were forecasting economic growth at a 3.0% rate. Now, nine...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
14.01.2020 16:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Gift That Keeps Giving The US economy is not in an economic boom, but growth has been consistently faster than during the Plow Horse phase from mid-2009 through the end of 2016. Real GDP has grown at a 2.6% annual rate since the start of 2017 versus 2.2% beforehand. But most analysts expect a noticeable slowdown in 2020; not a recession, but slimmer 1.8% real GDP growth (Q4/Q4). This is an...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.01.2020 10:56 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Expansion Continues What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, we forecasted the S&P would hit 3100 this year. At the time, this was a very aggressive call. Then we doubled down at mid-year, lifting our forecast to 3250. At the end of last week we were only 0.3% away. Two weeks ago we made our case for 3650 by the end of 2020. That may...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.01.2020 10:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.” Some...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
07.01.2020 13:24 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Blame the Overweight Jockey The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP growth accelerated, to an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, while the unemployment rate now stands at the lowest level in 50 years (and is...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
17.12.2019 11:16 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: S&P 3650, Dow 32500 A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the stock market was screaming BUY. At mid-year, seeing the economic and trade-policy stars aligning for further growth, and with our model for equites (more on...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
10.12.2019 15:43 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Good News is Good News A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a “bear market,” and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again. The Pouting Pundits still talk about ISM surveys being weak, and fret that a trade war is brewing. But, the S&P 500 is up 25% this year, and Friday’s report on...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
03.12.2019 16:54 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Don’t Worry About the US Consumer During the next couple of days you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on Thanksgiving Day itself. Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores were up 4.2% from a year ago. So much for the theory that brick and...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
19.11.2019 10:44 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Long Live the Bull Market Last December, almost 12 months ago, we set our year-end 2019 target for the S&P 500 at 3,100. Many thought we were way too bullish, but our model for the stock market suggested 3,100 was well within reach. We believed the bull market had plenty of room to run. Now, with six weeks to go until year-end, the stock market has already closed above our initial target. As of...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
12.11.2019 15:27 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Income Inequality, Taxation, and Redistribution One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer’s 1990 book, “Unlimited Wealth.” It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution. Imagine 10 people live on an island. Each day they wake up, catch two fish, eat them, and go back to bed. Its subsistence living at the most...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
29.10.2019 17:38 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Another Fed Rate Cut on the Way At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest it’s been since mid-2018. We hate to agree with the conventional wisdom, but in this case, we think it’s right. It’s very unlikely the Fed...
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Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook
22.10.2019 18:55 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: More Tepid GDP Growth in Q3 The government doesn’t release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it’ll come in at right around a 1.8% annual rate, maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower. Given that the economy grew at a tepid 2.0% annual rate in Q2, we’re sure you’ll hear...
