First Trust Global Portfolios Limited

First Trust Global Portfolios Limited

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  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: There’s Nothing Normal About This Recovery

    20.07.2021 15:20 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We keep hearing people make comparisons between this recovery and those of the past as if it’s apples-to-apples. For example, comparing job growth today to job growth after the 2008-2009 Panic. All in an effort to make the case that government spending creates economic growth. But there is nothing normal about the current economy. The things our government leaders have done in the past year are...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation Revisionism

    20.07.2021 15:19 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation Revisionism Talk about revisionist history! A recent tweetstorm from an opinion leader at the NY Times says that, looking back, he wonders what all the fuss was about inflation in the 1970s. It wasn’t “that high,” he says, and so the risk of returning to that kind of inflation should not be a serious concern today, because it wouldn’t even be that bad if we went back there. Just so we...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: A Question for the Fed

    26.05.2021 15:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: It’s not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become “secular” and “serious”? These are important questions and only the Fed has the answers. In April, the consumer price index was up 4.2% from a year ago; producer prices were...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Unsustainable

    26.05.2021 15:07 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government “stimulus” checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far above where they would be if COVID had never happened,...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Biden and Powell Versus Summers and Dudley

    26.05.2021 15:06 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: One of the best economic debates that’s happening right now isn’t between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it’s between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary “stimulus” as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy. In one corner we have President Joe Biden and Fed Chief...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Resisting the Budget Blowout

    26.05.2021 15:05 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes. Ultimately, though, it’s extremely important to keep in mind that the legislative process surrounding these bills is going to be long and arduous and that...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Sugar High Economy

    26.05.2021 15:05 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get? Answer: Some really strong economic data. The problem is that this rapid growth, like a “sugar high,” is not going to last. Look for the economy to slow in the future as unprecedented government spending and Federal Reserve money...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: 20210419 Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap

    26.05.2021 15:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic. It bottomed at roughly 2,224 during the nationwide strategy of shutting down for “15 days to slow the spread.” Because this was not a normal recession, and the market went into the shutdown undervalued, we believed stock prices would recover as business returned to more normal levels. By...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Housing Boom to Continue

    26.05.2021 15:04 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record (going back to 1991). Given these gains, some are wondering whether housing is back in a 2000s-type bubble. But a deep dive into the data suggests we are not. To assess home prices...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook:20210405 Jobs Are Booming

    26.05.2021 15:03 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting our wish. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2021 employment data, and payrolls increased a staggering 916,000 for the month, easily beating...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed, Regulation, and MMT - Irresponsible

    26.05.2021 15:02 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: You’ve got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while making it look like they didn’t have many tools at their disposal. The market keeps expecting the Fed to bow to pressures to lift rates, and the Fed knows that it can’t keep interest rates...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Inflation and The Fed

    22.03.2021 14:36 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as “too much money chasing too few goods and services” – but that doesn’t mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today’s case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of the money supply is up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest year-to-year growth in the...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Fed Can’t Fix COVID Lockdowns

    22.03.2021 14:35 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 gave the Fed a “dual mandate” – to promote maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. Over the years, the meaning of these two mandates has changed. Initially, in 1978, it was to get the economy to 3% unemployment and 3% inflation, or less. Since then, the unemployment rate has never been as low as 3%. So, this morphed into a target of...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Powell Disses Uncle Milty

    22.03.2021 14:34 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Those of us who are concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates are focusing on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply. This measure has soared since COVID-19 hit the US, up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest growth on record. It is the key difference between the current situation and the situation in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Overstimulation on the Way

    22.03.2021 14:33 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we’ll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that’ll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%. Meanwhile, 2021 got off to a roaring start. Retail sales soared 5.3% in January and are now up 7.4% from a year ago (pre-COVID). All major categories of sales rose in January,...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: The Return of Inflation

    22.03.2021 14:33 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an “inflation-complacency” that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation. When the Fed boosted the Monetary Base by more than $3 trillion dollars during Quantitative...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: AOC and Ted Cruz, Agree!

    22.03.2021 14:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: Yes, 2021 is starting off as crazy as 2020. They don’t agree on the Green New Deal, or Socialism, but Ted Cruz and AOC both agree that limiting investor access to markets is a mistake. In case you missed it, last week, Robinhood, a new online trading platform that marketed itself as democratizing investment, stopped investors from buying certain stocks. They did this during a “short squeeze” that...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Can Massive Deficits Really Be Financed?

    22.03.2021 14:32 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger. Before the bipartisan “stimulus” compromise passed in December, congressional budget scorekeepers estimated the fiscal year 2021 budget deficit at $1.8 trillion. Now, with that...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Growth Continued in Q4

    22.03.2021 14:31 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either. It’s true that renewed shutdowns starting last November finally hit retail sales and employment, especially at restaurants and bars. But much of the economy, like manufacturing output and housing, kept growing in the fourth quarter. As a...

  • Brian Wesbury Weekly Outlook: Elections Have Tax Consequences

    15.01.2021 17:45 - First Trust Global Portfolios Limited: The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many dramatic policies, which require 60 votes, but tax policy is likely to change in some significant ways. Congress can use special budget procedures to pass tax hikes without...

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