J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

20.06.2016 14:54 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Thema der Woche

The Weekly Brief 20. Juni 2016

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Mittelfristige Inflationserwartungen

%, 5-Jahres-Inflationserwartungen ab 5 Jahren

Tag Land News Zeitraum Prognose Zuvor

Mo Japan Handelsbilanz Mai JPY 40 Mrd JPY 823 Mrd

Di Deutschland ZEW Umfrage - Konjunturerwartungen Juni 3,0 6,4

Mi Eurozone Verbrauchervertrauen Juni -7 -7

USA Verkäufe bestehender Häuser Mai 5,4mn 5,3mn

Do UK / EU EU Referendum UK / EU EU Referendum EU Referendum - - - Frankreich Markit PMI Gesamtindex Juni 48,3 48,3

Deutschland Markit PMI Gesamtindex Juni 51,9 51,5

Eurozone Markit PMI Gesamtindex Juni 51,5 51,5

USA Erstanträge Arbeitslosenunterstützung Juni 270.000 264.000

USA Verkäufe neuer Häuser Mai 0,523 Mio. 0,511 Mio.

Fr USA Verbrauchervertrauen Juni 94,0 94,7

USA Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter Mai -0,8% 3,4%

Quelle: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Stand: 19. Juni 2016.

In dieser Woche stellt unsere Grafik die mittelfristigen Inflationserwartungen in Japan dar, die

aus dem Swap-Markt abzuleiten sind. Demnach sind die Inflationserwartungen der Anleger auf

ihren niedrigsten Stand seit der Amtsübernahme von Shinz? Abe im Dezember 2012 gesunken

und liegen inzwischen deutlich unter dem offiziellen Richtwert von 2%. Diese Entwicklung hängt

zum grossen Teil damit zusammen, dass die Investoren zunehmend bezweifeln, ob die

japanische Notenbank (Bank of Japan, BoJ) die Inflation mit ihrer expansiven Geldpolitik zu

steigern vermag. Was aber kann die BoJ noch tun, um die Konjunktur anzukurbeln? Schon jetzt

hat die BoJ fast 40% der japanischen Staatsanleihen aufgekauft und gehört bei 90% der

börsen-notierten Unternehmen Japans zu den zehn grössten Anteilseignern. Das Arsenal ihrer

Möglichkeiten zur Wiederbelebung der japanischen Wirtschaft ist weitgehend erschöpft. Stattdessen

müssen nun die beiden anderen Säulen der Abenomics – eine expansive Fiskalpolitik und

Strukturreformen – greifen, um der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität auf die Sprünge zu helfen.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_20.06.2016.pdf

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