J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

29.05.2017 10:50 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Da sich im Sommer einige der dunklen politischen Wolken über Europa auflösen, könnte das

Bild nun klarer werden. Das Verbrauchervertrauen in Deutschland, gemessen am ifo

Geschäftsklimaindex, stieg auf den höchsten gemessenen Wert seit der Einführung in 1991.

Dieser Sprung, auf 114,6 Punkte im Mai, setzte den Trend der stetigen Verbesserung der letzten

Wochen fort und ist sowohl auf Einschätzungen der aktuellen Lage als auch auf optimistischere

Erwartungen zurückzuführen. Der ifo Index passt zur Stärke des deutschen Einkaufsmanager-Index

(PMI) für das verarbeitende Gewerbe, welcher ebenfalls in der letzten Woche

veröffentlicht wurde. Eine Beschleunigung der Dynamik im verarbeitenden Gewerbe ist

besonders wichtig für Deutschland, da es einen Anteil von mehr als 20% am

Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) hat. Im Vergleich dazu, hat das verarbeitende Gewerbe in den USA,

Grossbritannien und Frankreich nur einen Anteil von ca. 10%. Können diese „harten” BIP-Daten

dem positiven Ausblick der Umfrage standhalten? Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt, welches

im Vergleich zum ersten Quartal 2016 um 2,9% höher war, suggeriert, dass sie es können.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_29.05.2017.pdf

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