J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

03.04.2017 11:40 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Seit der US-Präsidentschaftswahl sind die „weichen“ Umfragewerte wie die Einkaufsmanagerindices

(EMI) im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, das Verbrauchervertrauen und das Geschäftsklima

wesentlich besser ausgefallen als erwartet. Insgesamt lagen die weichen Umfragedaten zum

Teil in Rekordhöhe über den Erwartungen, da die Konjunkturaussichten in den USA nun

wieder optimistischer eingeschätzt werden. Wie die folgende Grafik zeigt, geht ein Anstieg der

weichen Umfragewerte häufig einer Verbesserung der harten volkswirtschaftlichen Daten

voraus, etwa bei der Industrieproduktion und den Einzelhandelsumsätzen. Der jüngste

Anstieg der weichen US-Daten hat bislang aber noch keine Verbesserung der harten Daten

bewirkt. Obwohl es nicht selten mehrere Monate dauert, bis sich eine Veränderung der

Umfragewerte in den harten Konjunkturdat

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_03.04.2017.pdf

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