J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

13.03.2017 11:02 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Letzte Woche feierte die Rally im S&P 500 ihren achten Geburtstag. Seit seinem Tiefstand

am 9. März 2009 hat der Index eine Gesamtrendite von 320% eingefahren. Die folgende

Grafik zeigt, dass die aktuelle Hausse gemessen an ihrer Dauer und den erzielten Renditen

die zweitlängste Marktexpansion aller Zeiten ist. Wie lange kann das noch so weitergehen?

Steigende Bewertungen und das Gewinnwachstum sind die beiden wichtigsten Faktoren für

die Aktienperformance. Die Bewertungen werden die Aktienmärkte wahrscheinlich nicht

beflügeln, da das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis mit dem 17,8-fachen der prognostizierten Gewinne

12% über dem langfristigen Durchschnitt liegt. Daher sollten sich die Anleger auf das

Gewinnwachstum konzentrieren, das für 2017 mit 10% prognostiziert wird. Weitere positive

Impulse könnte Trumps politische Agenda setzen, etwa durch Steuersenkungen und

wachstumsfördernde Massnahmen, die den US-Märkten eventuell auf die Sprünge helfen

werden.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_13.03.2017.pdf

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