J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

20.02.2017 10:45 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Stellungnahme der US-Notenbankchefin Janet Yellen vor dem US-Kongress bot den

Märkten vergangene Woche einen etwas besseren Einblick in die gegenwärtigen

Überlegungen der US-Notenbank Fed. Dabei fuhr Yellen einen restriktiveren Kurs als

bisher und verwies auf den steigenden Inflationsdruck und die robuste Lage am USArbeitsmarkt.

Zugleich wurde letzte Woche eine US-Inflation von 2,5 % ggü. dem

Vorjahr bekannt gegeben. Die Markterwartungen einer Zinserhöhung im März haben

sich leicht erhöht; die Wahrscheinlichkeit beträgt etwa 45%. Sollte die US-Renditekurve

jedoch nach oben tendieren und ein höheres Gefälle aufweisen? Einige Indikatoren

deuten darauf hin. Der vom ISM ermittelte EMI für das verarbeitende US-Gewerbe (ein

Index, der das Wachstum und den Ausblick in der US-Industrie abbildet) hat zuletzt

neue Höchststände erreicht. Derart hohe Werte lassen einen stärkeren Zinsunterschied

zwischen 10- und 2-jährigen US-Treasuries erwarten.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_20.02.2017.pdf

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