J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

11.04.2016 11:01 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Eine der wichtigsten Fragen, die sich Investoren Anfang dieses Jahres gestellt haben war, ob

sich die Schwäche der verarbeitenden Industrie in den USA auf die übrigen

Wirtschaftszweige ausbreiten würde. Investoren waren besorgt, da sich die Entwicklung des

Dienstleistungssektors und des Sektors für die verarbeitende Industrie üblicherweise nicht

erheblich unterscheiden und die Vorhersagen für die verarbeitende Industrie recht schwach

waren. Im Jahr 2000 hat sich die Divergenz zwischen den Prognosen für neue Aufträge in

der verarbeitenden Industrie und in der nicht-verarbeitenden Industrie – ein guter Indikator

für die Stabilität der Wirtschaft – dadurch geschlossen, dass der Dienstleistungssektor

massiv eingebrochen ist. Jüngste Marktdaten weisen darauf hin, dass dieses Mal die

Divergenz durch ein Anspringen der verarbeitenden Industrie geschlossen wird – und nicht

durch einen weiteren Rückgang des Dienstleistungssektors. Zusammenfassend: Allem

Anschein nach ist die USA nicht auf dem Weg in eine Rezession.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_11.04.2016.pdf

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