J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

14.12.2015 10:44 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Nach sieben Jahren Nullzinspolitik in den USA gehen wir davon aus, dass die Fed den Leitzins am Mittwoch um 0,25% anheben wird. Da die Arbeitslosenquote derzeit nur 5% beträgt und jeden Monat mehr als 200.000 neue Stellen geschaffen werden, scheint die US-Notenbank eine Zinserhöhung für angebracht zu halten. Gleichwohl dürfte die Fed nachdrücklich versichern, dass die Zinsen voraussichtlich nur langsam steigen werden. Der Markt ist darauf vorbereitet und hat einen Zinsschritt im Dezember bereits mit fast 80%iger Wahrscheinlichkeit eingepreist. Historisch gesehen haben die Aktienmärkte nach einer ersten Zinserhöhung zunächst leicht nachgegeben, um anschliessend neue Höchststände auszuloten. Wie auch immer die anfängliche Reaktion ausfällt: Wir glauben, dass der Markt diese Entscheidung in Kürze als Beleg für die Robustheit der US-Wirtschaft auffassen wird.

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