J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

07.12.2015 11:40 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Werden sich die Aktienmärkte im Dezember gut entwickeln? Historisch gesehen deutet vieles

darauf hin. So haben Aktien in den vergangenen 20 Jahren im Dezember in der Regel gut

abgeschnitten – die bekannte „Weihnachtsrally“. In Grossbritannien waren die Aktienrenditen

in den letzten 20 Jahren nur zweimal negativ. Damit kommt der britische Markt in den

Dezembermonaten auf eine positive Renditequote von 90 %! An den kontinentaleuropäischen

Aktienmärkten gab es im selben 20-Jahres-Zeitraum lediglich vier negative Dezembermonate

und in den USA fünf. Die durchschnittlichen Renditen im Dezember betrugen 2 % in

Grossbritannien, 2,4 % auf dem europäischen Festland und 1,4 % in den USA. Angesichts der

Regelmässigkeit dieser positiven Dezember-Ergebnisse müssen Fondsmanager schon mutig

sein, Aktien im letzten Monat des Jahres kurz vor Abschluss der jährlichen Performance

unterzugewichten. Dies erklärt das Phänomen wahrscheinlich teilweise.

J.P. Morgan _The Weekly Brief_ 7.12.2015.pdf

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