J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

18.05.2015 16:51 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der Weg von Griechenland in die Rezession steigert die Angst, dass dem Land das Geld ausgeht. Das Treffen der Euro-Gruppe am 11. Mai sollte eigentlich einen wichtigen Wendepunkt darstellen, der Prozess verläuft allerdings schleppend. Zwar zahlte Griechenland dem Internationalen Währungsfond (IWF) am vergangenen Dienstag 750 Mio. Euro, dennoch müssen weiterhin rund 25 Mrd. Euro Schulden im Jahresverlauf beglichen werden. Mit Unterstützung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), den Liquiditätsbestand über die Notfall-Liquiditätshilfe (Emergency Liquidity Assistance – ELA) zu erhöhen, wird der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Union unwahrscheinlicher, auch im Falle einer Zahlungsunfähigkeit. Allerdings wird die EZB die politischen sowie finanziellen Kosten ihrer Unterstützung abwägen und möglicherweise überdenken, falls die nächste Zahlung Griechenlands am 20. Juli an die EZB nicht getätigt wird. Es gibt eine Reihe von möglichen Szenarien, falls Griechenland seine Rückzahlungen im Sommer nicht leisten kann und obwohl das Ansteckungsrisiko geringer ist als in der Vergangenheit, könnte die Volatilität auf andere europäische Märkte übertragen werden.

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