J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

30.03.2015 11:22 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der starke Anstieg des US-Dollars auf handelsgewichteter Basis kündigt ein verlangsamtes Wirtschaftswachstum aufgrund von schwächerem Export in den nächsten Quartalen an. Doch die US-Notenbank ist wahrscheinlich eher aufgrund der Auswirkung auf die Preise beunruhigt, da die Konsumenten nun wohl günstigere ausländische Importprodukte gegenüber heimischen US-Produkten bevorzugen. Dies könnte sinkende Preise zur Folge haben und dadurch den Spielraum für Lohn- und Gehaltsanstiege einschränken. Das Chart der Woche zeigt die enge Korrelation zwischen den Ausgaben für den persönlichen Konsum – dem bevorzugten Inflations-Indikator der US-Notenbank – und Importpreisen für Konsumgüter. Zentralbanken sehen Wechselkursschwankungen oft nur als vorübergehend, mit einer Inflationsrate nahe der 0%-Grenze, wird sich der US-Dollar jedoch noch einmal einer genaueren Prüfung unterziehen lassen müssen.

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