J.P. Morgan Asset Management

19.05.2014 10:39 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Umfragen in Indien haben vergangene Woche die Märkte begeistert. Der Grund: Die Umfragewerte legen nahe, dass wahrscheinlich der reformistische Narendra Modi nächster Premierminister (PM) wird. Der Wochenchart zeigt die Reaktion des indischen Aktienindex, Sensex, auf den bevorstehenden Machtaufstieg Modis im Vergleich zur damaligen Machtübernahme durch PM Manmohan Singh vor zehn Jahren. Die Marktreaktionen heute stehen im krassen Gegensatz zueinander: Als sich im Mai 2004 der Triumph Singhs abzeichnete fiel der Sensex um mehr als 15 Prozent. Dieser Kursrückgang stellte seinerzeit den grössten monatlichen Verlust in mehr als einem Jahrzehnt dar. Im Mai 2014 zeigt sich ein anderes Bild: Der indische Aktienmarkt ist um mehr als 5 Prozent gestiegen. Allerdings sollten Anleger die Fähigkeiten Modis vorsichtig bewerten und abwarten, ob er Indiens Aussichten unmittelbar revitalisieren kann. Das Land ist bekannt für seine Bürokratie, die selbst starke Führer zwingt, sich intensiv mit dem bürokratischen Apparat des Landes zu beschäftigen.

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