J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

11.12.2023 16:57 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der frühere Beginn der Zinserhöhungszyklen in vielen Schwellenländern zahlt sich nun aus. Als die meisten Zentralbanken der grossen Industrieländer im Jahr 2022 die ersten Zinsschritte vornahmen, hatten einige der grössten Notenbanken der Schwellenländer in Lateinamerika und Osteuropa die Zinsen bereits mehrfach angehoben. Der Inflationsdruck hat in den Schwellenländern inzwischen seinen Höhepunkt erreicht, sodass wir im nächsten Jahr mit einer weiteren Disinflation rechnen. Aufgrund der im historischen Vergleich hohen Realzinsen – die sich aus dem Leitzins abzüglich der Gesamtinflation ergeben – deutet sich reichlich Spielraum für eine geldpolitische Lockerung in den Schwellenländern an. Volkswirtschaften wie Brasilien, Chile und Ungarn haben Senkungszyklen eingeleitet, und in den kommenden Monaten dürften viele andere Länder diesem Beispiel folgen. Lokalwährungsanleihen der Schwellenländer haben sich in diesem Jahr bereits stark entwickelt, jedoch erwarten wir auch 2024 anhaltenden Rückenwind für den Sektor.

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