J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

27.11.2023 13:47 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Sowohl bei Investment-Grade- als auch bei Hochzinsanleihen blieben die Spreads 2023 aufgrund der relativ robusten Aktivität und des geringen Refinanzierungsbedarfs begrenzt. Im Jahr 2024 wird der Refinanzierungsbedarf jedoch zunehmen. Angesichts der Differenz zwischen der Verzinsung, die Unternehmen für bestehende Verbindlichkeiten zahlen (durchschnittlicher Kupon) und dem, was sie für neue Schulden zahlen müssen (aktuelle Renditen), wird dieser Refinanzierungsbedarf recht teuer ausfallen und könnte die Unternehmensausgaben im kommenden Jahr beeinträchtigen. Für Emittenten hochverzinslicher Unternehmensanleihen dürfte die Situation problematischer sein, da sie bei der Emission neuer Schuldtitel mit einem stärkeren Anstieg der Zinskosten rechnen müssen. Dies bekräftigt unsere Präferenz für Investment-Grade- gegenüber Hochzinsanleihen, deren Gesamterträge auch von einer höheren Zinssensitivität profitieren könnten, wenn Staatsanleihen sinkende Renditen verzeichnen.

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