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Die Daten aus der Eurozone wiesen im August auf eine schwierige Kombination aus hartnäckiger Inflation und rückläufiger Aktivität hin. So signalisierten die Konjunkturumfragen im vergangenen Monat erste Risse im Wachstumsausblick und eine Verlangsamung der Dienstleistungsaktivität, die die Wirtschaft seit Jahresbeginn getragen hat. Doch während die Basiseffekte in den nächsten Monaten zur weiteren Abkühlung der Gesamtinflation beitragen dürften, könnte die beharrlichere Kerninflation die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) daran hindern, ihre Geldpolitik als Reaktion auf eine schwächelnde Wirtschaft zu lockern. Derzeit gehen die Investoren davon aus, dass die EZB die Zinsen in der ersten Hälfte des kommenden Jahres senken wird. Wir sehen jedoch die Gefahr, dass diese Hoffnungen enttäuscht werden, sofern der Druck auf die Kernpreise nicht deutlich nachlässt. Qualitätsorientierte Strategien, die auf nachweisliche Ertragsstabilität und robuste Bilanzen achten, sollten ihre Portfolios angesichts dieser Kombination aus verlangsamtem Wachstum und längerfristig höheren Zinsen stärken.
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