J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

12.06.2023 11:05 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die jüngsten Umfragedaten enthielten widersprüchliche Signale über die Stärke der US-Wirtschaft. Einerseits deutet der Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) für den US-Dienstleistungssektor laut S&P mit einem starken Wert von 54,9 im Mai darauf hin, dass die grösste Volkswirtschaft der Welt weiterhin robust ist. Allerdings zeichnen nicht alle Indikatoren ein so rosiges Bild. Die ISM-Konjunkturumfragen waren zuletzt rückläufig, ein mögliches Indiz für ein höheres Rezessionsrisiko. Die Geschichte zeigt, dass der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für das nichtverarbeitende US-Gewerbe in der Regel gemeinsam mit der ISM-Kennzahl für die Auftragseingänge im verarbeitenden Gewerbe fällt. Da die Auftragseingänge im verarbeitenden Gewerbe deutlich zurückgehen, könnte der erstere Indikator diesem Beispiel folgen. Daher glauben wir, dass die Rezessionsgefahr für die US-Wirtschaft noch nicht gebannt ist.

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