J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

17.10.2022 16:32 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Arbeitslosenquote in Grossbritannien fiel im August auf 3,5 %. Dies war ein weiterer Beleg dafür, dass der britische Arbeitsmarkt trotz der Krise der Lebenshaltungskosten immer noch heiss läuft, und erhöhte den Druck auf die Bank of England, ihre Glaubwürdigkeit in der Inflationsbekämpfung Anfang November zu bestätigen. Die Bank befindet sich in einer schwierigen Lage, da sie versucht, die steigende Inflation und die Turbulenzen an den GiltMärkten in Einklang zu bringen. Vorbehaltlich einer fiskalpolitischen Kehrtwende wird die Bank unserer Meinung nach das umsetzen müssen, was von den Märkten eingepreist wird: 100 Basispunkte sowohl im November als auch im Dezember, sodass die Zinsen in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2023 einen Höchststand von etwa 5,5 % bis 6 % erreichen dürften. Höhere Zinsen werden wahrscheinlich zu einem schwächeren Immobilienmarkt führen, aber da ein grösserer Teil des Hypothekenmarkts länger fixiert ist, könnte sich dies langsamer niederschlagen als in früheren Straffungszyklen.

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